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Football. Ukraine. Premier League
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First down probability
What is first down probability in American football?
What is the main focus of the first down probability?
The first down probability is a chance to gain the required distance for that. Football analyst Brian Burk proposed a unique method of odd of converting the first down for any down number and distance to the goal line. It helps fans to estimate the result of the play. This index gives a full image of the team’s offensive efficiency together with expected points.
The calculation method focuses on breakpoint. It means the distance after the previous down, enough for a resultative kick or touchdown. The second down mark is about 5.5 yard. The third down mark is 1.5. Burke’s logic implies that the formula is actual distance minus breakpoint. The difference is divided to the breakpoint and multiples 100%. That’s why first down and 10 yards is preferable than 2nd&9 or 3rd&16.