NPxG (Non-Penalty Expected Goals)

NPxG, or “Non-Penalty Expected Goals,” is a statistical metric in football that calculates the expected number of goals a team or player is likely to score from non-penalty situations. Similar to traditional expected goals (xG), which includes both penalty and non-penalty situations, NPxG focuses solely on the goal-scoring probability of open play situations. The model takes into account various factors such as the location of the shots, the type of chances created, and historical conversion rates to estimate the probability of a goal being scored.

NPxG provides insights into a team’s or player’s attacking quality, regardless of penalty situations, and helps assess their efficiency in creating and converting goal-scoring opportunities from open play. Analyzing NPxG allows teams to understand their strengths and weaknesses in attacking scenarios and make data-driven decisions to improve their goal-scoring output.