5 Rare Sports for Forecasting

Bookmakers accept bets on a wide variety of sports, from traditional hockey to baseball.  But many continue to bet on popular tennis or the same football, completely ignoring the more “profitable” options.  After all, some sports competitions lend themselves to a much more accurate prediction, which automatically means for the player a more likely opportunity to get their winnings and raise the ROI to a higher level.  The high accuracy of forecasting for some sports events is justified by a combination of several factors.  And for example, we will analyze the most “interesting” sports in terms of profitability.

Bets on baseball

Baseball, in fact – a national American game, has a fairly good list of totals and handicaps.  In addition, the absence of the “draw” option in the rules also simplifies the analysis.  And in the end, to calculate the possible outcome or a specific result for each of the teams is much easier than for football or basketball.

For an understanding of “mechanics”, let us turn to the key points of the rules of sport discipline.

• a draw at the end of a match is impossible in principle, but an inning can end in a draw;
• The account in the house is determined by the number of bolts and strikes;
• The goal of the team playing in the attack is to get a run, the goal of the “defending” is to knock out 3 players of the opponent into touch.

Based on the above points, it becomes clear that the greatest efficiency for each team has a pitcher – the key player who gives the ball.  Therefore, keeping the statistics for the whole team and, additionally, for the pitcher, you can significantly optimize the algorithm that determines the forecast for the outcome of the sporting event.

Interesting fact: to make bets on baseball is better in foreign, optimally – in American bookmaker offices – as there much more than significant European and Asian bs becks traditionally make the baseball less attention.

For most baseball games, the typical account is “7: 4”, and this fact is well known to BS analysts.  Coefficients on the outcome of a sport event are for this reason the lowest – the result is easy to predict.  A higher odds is obtained on totals, since here without a thorough analysis of the upcoming match can’t be dispensed with.

An illustration of this can serve as a match “Oakland Athletics” – “Boston Red Sox”, which ended with a score of 3: 7.  On Under 4. 5 for 1 team with OT most BS offered a coefficient of 1. 85.  Based on the features of the Oakland Athletics game during the previous games, they lose their chance of winning stably, and the score from the game to the game is only 3.  The mathematical model of the match excludes another Under for 1 team.

Bets on hockey on the herbs

In some European countries, as well as on the African continent, in New Zealand and Australia, grass hockey is widespread.  Represents a hybrid between ordinary football and hockey, this sport will allow even a novice player to steadily receive a good win.  The whole thing is in some features of sports discipline:

• Depending on the tournament, a “draw” option is possible, even despite overtimes and shootouts, and this is a common occurrence;
• for large competitions (for example, international tournaments), handicap is easily calculated, which allows you to play a player’s bet with a good coefficient;
• Despite the significant similarity with ice hockey, there are far fewer acute and less predictable moments in this sport.

The second factor that determines the greater accuracy of forecasting is the small interest of both players and bookmakers in this sport.  It is a narrow list of sports events that makes it easy to win from the BS both in handicap and in total.  In this case, the actual total, and even the handicap coefficients are lower than those of European BS.

An example of good predictability of field hockey on the grass can be called a match between Japan and the UK in summer OI’2016.  The sporting event, which ended with a score of 0: 2 in favor of the British, allowed players to earn on home betting (+2. 5).  This is justified by the high efficiency of the game of the British team and the mediocre game in Group B of the Japanese team.  In mathematical terms, the gap between the teams was at least 2 by the time of the game, if you analyze all the previous matches of the country of the rising sun.

Bets on water polo

Hard contact sport – Water polo, is quite attractive for players with high predictability in mathematical terms, clearly overvalued coefficients on the part of BS and absolute “chaos” for statistical analysis.  This is due to several factors, among which there are several important ones:

• the presence and absence of key team players has a great influence on the outcome of each specific match;
• Most BSs change the odds for winning the line from the favorite to the outsider simply under the pressure of the players’ bets, while the entire list for the sporting event is marked by an abundance of errors;
• surprises in water polo does not happen, because the teams-favorites have basic and reserve strategies for the game.

Players who decide to gamble on water polo betting should understand one important point: no matter how high the coefficient may seem, no matter what the outcome of the statistical calculations predicted, only the results of the forecasts should be guided.  Without them, bets, alas, lose.  One can’t ignore the second important point – practically in every team, regardless of the level of competition, there are analogues of “tafgaev” – athletes, who are released solely for “turning off” key players of the opposing team.

Important! You can’t bet even well-known favorite teams that play in local competitions and tournaments.  During such matches, the coach can play not on the result of the meeting, but on working out new tactics or adjusting the strategy.

Bets for handball

High coefficients, good predictability of individual matches and entire tournaments – that’s what you can say about handball.  And the players who decide to earn on the bets in this sport can count on a good win – the patency of mathematical forecasts here is higher than in hockey or tennis.

The determining factor in this sport discipline is the effectiveness of the game of each of the team players, which is directly related to the overall performance of the team.  Accordingly, no “miracles” on the field happen – the outsider never becomes a favorite, which greatly simplifies the mathematical calculation of the outcome of the meeting.

An example is a match in the framework of the World Championships between Slovakia and Finland, which took place on 01/07/2018.  The meeting ended with a score of 24:16, which was Under 51. 5, but the mathematically validity of this was the effectiveness of the game of Slovakia, corrected for the Finns’ regular strategy.

Practically for every handball match there is a mathematical justification. It allows to talk about the proceedings of forecasts in 70 and more from cases of 100.

Bets on the second football league

As for the favorite of all football, the players are reluctant to bet on the games of the second league.  The validity of this step can be expressed by the following factors:

• Not all players know the teams and their style of play;
• matches of the second division are not so highly advertised and covered in the media;
• lack of a wide list of sports events.

But, the same can be said about BS analysts, which leads to the appearance of clearly overvalued coefficients on the lines, which can be played on.

An example of this can serve as a match Cornell – Villarreal In the 2 nd division of Spain.  BS offered players a bet on Over 2. 5 with a coefficient of 2. 49.  The actual result of the meeting is 3: 0.  Good luck, or dry mathematics? Of course, calculations! The fact is that the mathematical algorithm does not differ between leagues, player names and coaches’ names – it only works with numbers.  But the statistical forecaster – alas, just draws attention to the average efficiency of the game of each team.

Successfully, win on the matches of the second league on football easily, if guidelines are with some adjustments to the actual position of things (traume of the key football players who has broden after obtainig forecast and so far).

Instead of conclusion

“Exotic” sports are the opportunity to earn at a bet at a much greater bet than if it is a question of the usual tennis or hockey.  After all, most BS pays less attention to the analysis of upcoming sporting events, whereas a professional approach to predicting the upcoming match will make it possible to find a lot of mistakes in the list.

But it is important to remember – the sports forecast is not a “panacea”, and does not guarantee 100% success.  The probability of passing a bet should be carefully weighed, and if there are any doubts, it is better to refuse a bet with the BS, or to reduce its cost.