Advices for Using the Binomial Distribution in Betting

Even if you know how to predict winning bets with traffic of more than 50%, you still are not insured from the situation when your bank in the shop can come to a complete ruin. Thus, even with an excellent ability to make predictions, you will need to focus on capital management systems to protect yourself from losing.

How does the binomial distribution in bets work?

So, let’s assume that the patency of our bets will be about 57.5%. It should be decided whether we are threatened with ruin at such passability? In fact, if we play for a long period, our patency will fluctuate in size from 54 to 58%. If we take as a basis 21 rates, then, according to the specified percentage, we will have 12 winning games and 9 defeats from 21 matches.

However, the proposed combination, i.e. 12 wins and 9 losses, not the only possible in a series of 21 stakes. There may be other combinations: they occur quite often and can combine different variations of victories and defeats. Such a representation of possible combinations is called the binomial distribution in bets. It is usually represented as a graph, which shows the percentage in each combination.

We describe one of these situations. The number of victories and defeats mentioned by us (12 and 9) will come across most often, approximately in 17% of cases. This means that one of the 6 games will match this combination. Thus, if we make 21 bids over a long period with a passability of 57.5%, we will get a profit in 60% of the rates. The remaining 4 cases out of 10 on the indicated statistics will be assigned to a ratio in which the victories will be less (maybe even less defeats).

So, even if the passability is about 60%, you may encounter a case where there are 7 victories and 14 defeats. Conversely, the situation can significantly improve: you will get a series where there will be 14 victories and 7 defeats. Also 1 case out of 8 can bring you a major loss, as the number of defeats will reach 13 games.

So, considering all possible risks, you will be able to correctly choose a system of money management. As the graph shows, absolutely not suitable system will be the doubling of the bets after each loss or criterion of Kelly. The best system in this case becomes flat, because it implies a reasonable management of the capital, based on the size of rates.

Pros and cons of the approach

The term “binomial distribution”, which is also called the “Poisson distribution”, migrated to betting from mathematics. Here binomial distribution meant a theory of probability. With the help of the proposed formulas, the number of successes in the sequence of n random experiments was calculated, and the probability of success in each of the cases was constant and equaled to a certain number p.

Thus, the binomial distribution makes it possible to calculate a constant percentage of success not only in rates, but in any business. As for betting, binomial distribution can be applied to calculate the percentage of success bets for long-distance races. Thus, the player has the choice of strategy of the game and money management.

However, it is impossible to calculate the percentage of success without the knowledge of mathematics and formulas. If from the school program you remember only the multiplication table, from Poisson’s theories will be on “you”. To build at least a small graph, you will have to re-read the mathematical literature, remember how to solve formulas, etc. This is the essential minus of the binomial distribution: only mathematicians can cope with it.

Although most lucky bettors show sometimes excellent mathematical abilities, as practice shows and numerous forums. They rarely resort to the binomial distribution. The complexity of calculations does not allow spending so much time. In addition, every solid player has a system developed for him. He works on it, getting a certain stable win. If it is necessary to test a new system, then the distribution will not be superfluous, but it will take a lot of time.

Conclusions

Thus, the Poisson binomial distribution is not for beginners in bets. Here you need to have experience and ability to math. If you do not have either, use some simple strategies for allocating capital.

Binomial distribution is unlikely to be necessary for those who play in live from case to case. Here there is no stable system where it is necessary to calculate the probability of rates. You bet, based on your own calculations and considerations. The profit in such bets is one-time. Quite a different matter – the game on a long distance. Here you can make some sacrifices in order to get the planned profit later. But to know exactly what percentage of the bank will have to sacrifice, players resort to a binomial distribution. It is able to answer the question: how not to lose everything.

Find full information about the binomial distribution in mathematics is not difficult: in Internet resources there are many benefits, textbooks, abstracts, descriptions. О before you start to study it, decide for yourself: really you are ready to sacrifice a lot of time and effort to calculate the percentage of your success. Binomial distribution should be dealt with only if you are easily versed in mathematical formulas or decided to fully dedicate yourself to the bets and earn this trade for a living. Then go ahead, to conquer the peaks: they will help you achieve what you want.

Beginners and ordinary sports lovers, who decided to make small bets from time to time, do not need to dwell on such a complicated theory. The basics of betting will be quite enough to figure out how to make a forecast, and what kind of bet to choose. Leave binomial distribution for mathematicians and professionals.