Analysis of Football Matches for Outcomes and Totals

One of the most important sections of betting is analysis and forecasting. To choose matches, to choose the most optimal bets in them is a big deal, which directly affects the financial result. Since football is the most popular sport among fans, and therefore also players at bets, we will analyze the analysis of matches using its example. In this review, we will consider the application of various forecasting factors when choosing bets of different directions. Among the offers of bookmakers for football matches, bets on the main outcomes and totals prevail.

Of course, these different by nature markets have their own set of factors that should be taken into account first. Some of the parameters intersect in different directions, and some specific, aimed only at a certain type of market. Understanding such moments of forecasting is extremely important, so this information will be useful to beginners and those bettors who are going through the stage of formation as a professional. You can get to all this, get to the bottom yourself, but we will simplify this process, we will warn against a number of deliberate mistakes, and we will direct it to the correct algorithm of actions.

Analysis for betting on outcomes

There are three main outcomes in football: victory of the first team, draw, victory of the second. However, the list of bet types is not limited to this. There are double chances combining a draw and someone’s victory (1X, X2), or two wins without a draw (12). There is also an extensive list of odds: minus, plus and zero. In this subsection we will consider the list of analysis factors that are used to predict the result. The final decision can result in any of these types of bets.

What are these factors? Let’s start with the listing, and then briefly describe each:

• motivation;
• difference in motivation;
• strenght;
• composition;
• the factor of your field;
• style of play;
• rival relationship history;
• density and complexity of the calendar;
• coverage;
• weather.

Motivation

The motivation factor determines how important a particular match is for each of the opponents. It is not by chance that we separately separated motivation and the difference in motivation. In its pure form, the very fact of having an interest in winning a match is a signal that the fight has value and can be considered further. If the motivation is not obvious, then it is more likely a dropout factor. It is better to ignore such a meeting, since it is more likely to be comradely or formal.

Motivation difference

So the motivation, as such, should be regarded as a factor in the preliminary selection of matches. If it is, we take it, if not, we sweep it. Of much greater interest in predicting precisely the main outcomes is the difference in motivation, when for one of the teams victory in a particular match is more important. In so many games there is no difference in motivation. So we have to go on to consider other factors.

However, if such motivation is found, then this is a serious reason to give preference to a particular party. Great motivation often hits all other factors. A more charged team is able to win (or at least not lose) a strong opponent, away, with problems in the roster. So it’s a big mistake to rely only on the class and the big name of the team, if in a particular match the opponent has higher motivation to win, even if they are nominally weaker.

In general, the difference in motivation plays the role of a serious stop factor. If such a delta in the focus on victory is present, then the forecast vector is already uniquely determined. We consider other factors in order to reinforce confidence in a more motivated team, or to doubt and, ultimately, abandon the bet.

The difference in motivation is mainly sought in the tournament layouts. It is believed that a little higher motivation is always the home team. But do not forget about various small motivators. With the equality of others, the difference can be made: the anniversary of the club, the day of the city, the birthday of the coach or owner, a national holiday, the birth of a child from the team leader and the like. So follow the profile media and club twitter very much shown.

Strength

If motivation is equivalent, then the next in rank will be the force factor. This complex concept includes two sub-factors: class and game form. As you might guess, a class is a longer-term, global concept. The game form is local and can change significantly during the season.

The team class is easy to define. This concept includes the club’s budget, the transfer value of the main players, the quality of the infrastructure, the qualifications of the coach, the leadership’s ambitions, traditions and history of victories in the past. It is always easy to compare two teams for financial well-being, for successes in the recent past. For this component there will be a rather short and unambiguous verdict. Either the teams are close in level, or one of them is higher. The degree of superiority can also be determined by a certain conditional scale that you yourself enter.

With the game form, everything is more complicated. Understanding of the conditions consists of statistics and visual impressions of recent matches. An important role in determining the condition is played by the level of rivals in those games. After all, you can brilliantly oppose very weak opponents, and already about the average teams to break your teeth.

If the team is cooler and is in good play tone, then the direction of the forecast is definitely directed from it. That is, the bet on the favorite is considered. It remains only to check the odds of BS to understand whether this shoulder is adequately estimated.

If the team is cooler, but the game form is bad, then it is worth starting from the opponent. Based on long-term statistics and a big name, in such a match there will be a nominal favorite, the odds for it will be very low. At the same time, due to the best game form, a less cool team is able to give a fight. We play with no loss, or a positive handicap for profitable odds, taking advantage of the drawdown on the opposite shoulder of the market.

If the class of one team is higher, but both are in bad shape, then it is better to bypass such a game as incomprehensible. If, on the contrary, both teams are equal in strength and in class, then the yoke can be twisted further, but not for the main outcome, but for the same totals that we will consider later.

Composition

The whole context about the game form is tightly tied to the optimality of the composition of teams. If a semi-reserve or completely second squad comes out, then this is a completely different team. It’s funny when the coach issues doubles for cup matches, and the odds in the line are set as if the base itself is playing there.

Nevertheless, every time there is a fair crowd of “geniuses” who bet on such “favorites”. They may then win in one particular case. Yes, only the real probability of this was two times lower than what the odds indicated. With a systematic game at such bets, a minus is inevitable.

So tracking line-ups is very important. If the combinations are optimal, then this factor is not taken into account. Just the same class and form are compared. If losses due to injuries or disqualifications take place, it is necessary to determine the degree of their criticality.

This is usually considered in the context of the lines in which the rotation will occur. If the main goalkeeper or defenders is eliminated, it is understood that the team may miss more than usual. If attackers or midfielders of a creative plan have fallen, this can lead to a drawdown in performance. If the positions are easily filled, the rotation players are not seriously inferior in the class, then the criticality of the losses decreases. If there is no full replacement, then it is worth making adjustments to the forecast.

Losses in different lines can have a different effect on the picture of the game, but everything can be reduced to the same thing, the team will not win. The presence on the field of an optimal played combination of football players is considered a solid advantage over a highly shuffled roster.

Also, the composition may be a reflection of motivation. If the match is not as important for the coach as the others that were recently or will be soon, then it can intentionally release a weaker combination, allowing the leaders to rest. This option must be kept in mind, not discounted.

In the context of the rosters, it is worth monitoring the load on the leading players involved in the performances of national teams. For example, stars from Latin America always appear weaker than their level after flying across the ocean. In general, you need to look at the leaders and how they performed in the national teams. Maybe someone had a long journey, or the game was important, difficult, energy-consuming. Athletes get tired not only physically, but also morally. After too intense matches, emotional burnout and under-tuning to ordinary fights in the domestic championship may be observed.

Factor of your field

It is well known that the venue of a match plays a large role in predicting the main outcomes. Some teams are aimed at especially high-quality performances at home, a set of points in their own walls, the imposition of a fight even on nominally more cool teams. Away, such a club can play in a completely different way, think more about defense, not really take a steam bath about the defeat, but rejoice sincerely in a draw. At the same time, there is always a pool of leaders who try to play evenly, regardless of this factor. Although usually on the road victories are still more difficult.

In general, we need to evaluate how specific teams perform at home and away. Interpret this information should not be in the forehead, but also to distinguish the level of rivals. From this we can draw a lot of useful conclusions, strengthen or doubt the forecast formed by

Play style

A rather important factor is the style of football, in which this or that team plays. Moreover, it is important to understand what the coach plays at home, what on the road, how the style of the game changes, depending on the opponent, their strength and style.

Roughly speaking, at this stage you need to answer questions like:

• Who will own the ball more?
• Who will attack positionally?
• Who will use the counterattack?

Well, compare the ability of teams under such conditions. There are teams that can play solidly from a position of strength, methodically shatter and break into the dense defense of rivals that have sat back. There are teams that can only attack normally in the open. On the contrary, they strive to give the ball and catch the opponent in free zones after interceptions. Well, in defense, there are teams that can deliver a high-quality “bus” and fight back, but there are those who are incapable of this. The second option pushes to play open football, even against stronger opponents.

Having correctly decomposed who will play what, many outlines of the forecast for the main outcome will be clearly drawn. So, at home, many teams are forced to play the first number, otherwise the fans will not understand. For some, it’s good, but someone, on the contrary, accustomed to playing on the counterattack, performs better on the road than on their field, where they are catching their imperfect defense over and over again.

In-person meetings

The history of personal meetings is not such a critical factor. Most of the matches between the same rivals have long been, they played completely different combinations of football players, so you should not pay special attention to this. Another thing is if the results on the in-person meetings carry signs of a trend. One team constantly beat another, or vice versa, cannot win for many years. Based on this, we can talk about “convenient” and “uncomfortable” rivals.

If convenient, then this is an additional factor in confirming the forecast for motivation, strength, completeness. If it is inconvenient, then this is an occasion to refuse the bet, even if all other points indicate the opposite. Against “karma” is better not to shout. If in the history of personal meetings porridge is from different results, then you can’t bother and omit this aspect.

The calendar

Among the secondary factors, it is worth considering the schedule in which the teams play. If the games are held at the same interval, and the rivals are about the same level, then no difference can be found here. If one team plays in the weekly cycle, and the other also holds matches in midweek, in the country’s cup, or in Eurocups, then the calendar will affect.

Either the team playing on a denser schedule will have a rotation, or you can’t count on the optimal level of performance in one of the meetings of the cycle. The forecaster’s task is to look at the lineups and draw conclusions on which game to expect the highest quality and which not, up to considering any bets on opponents.

Not only the density itself affects, but also the complexity of the opponents. It’s one thing if the team scored 2-3 goals quickly and played out an hour, rolling the ball. It’s completely different — if it was cutting 90 plus minutes against a very strong counterpart. Given these points about the state of the team a lot will become clear.

Coverage

Sometimes in the forecast it is worth considering such a moment as coverage. There are only two aspects to pay attention to:

• bad lawn;
• artificial field.

If a team with many quick and technical performers will come to visit a team on whose field the garden is conditionally “garden”, then a number of their qualities can level the field.

As for the transition from natural to artificial fields and vice versa — this is also a problem. If the team is used to playing on the grass, and here you have to play on synthetics, this takes away some part of the perspective. Here it is necessary to look at the difference in class. If it is colossal, then the masters devote their opponents even on an unusual surface. But if the level is not so different, then the owners who are accustomed to their artificial field will definitely have an advantage. The transition from synthetics to grass is not so strikingly reflected in the quality of the game.

Weather

Very rarely, but it happens, you have to evaluate the weather conditions as well. This should be done on long trips, when a team, accustomed to playing in one climate zone, ends up in another. For example, clubs and national teams from Western and Southern Europe are always challenging to play in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the like in the early spring or late fall, in the cold, in the snow. The same applies to trips to hot regions by teams accustomed to more comfortable temperatures. For local football players this is familiar, but for guests there may be difficulties.

Totals analytics

We considered the basis of factors. Now it’s worth taking a look which of them are stronger and which weaker affect the forecasting of totals. Usually the sequence is exactly this. First, they evaluate the match in the context of the main outcomes. If any worthwhile bet looms there, they record it and go just to this level, try on totals. If there is no worthwhile bet on the outcome, they also go to this floor. Do not mix, because the context of evaluating factors for outcomes and totals is significantly different.

As in the case of outcomes, motivation is a control factor just for the suitability of the game in general for any kind of forecasting. If the motivation is not obvious, then the match is simply dismissed and not considered for any type of market.

Totals are represented by an extensive list of bets. It is worth considering separately the forecasting of general and individual performance indicators.

Totals

Motivating factor may play a role in considering the overall totals. And this applies to Total Under. If the match is very important, then this is a prerequisite to consider the “bottom”, since the stakes are very high, no one will risk playing open football. This is only a prerequisite. To affirm in this forecast or abandon it, you can only evaluate the game styles of the teams and their current form in terms of creating moments from the implementation. The difference in motivation does not so much affect the forecasting of totals.

By itself, the ratio of classes and game conditions of teams does not directly affect the total. It’s worth not looking at the difference, but precisely at the state of affairs. If both teams are not in shape, do not stick with goals, this is more an occasion to refuse bets on this game than to consider Total Under. If both teams are good at attacking recently — this is an occasion to play Total Over.

The optimality of formulations is the most important factor in predicting overall performance. If defenders, a defensive midfielder or goalkeeper are eliminated, these are the factors behind Total Over. If the attacking units suffered losses, and the replacement is not equivalent, then Total Under.

The factor of your field influences quite significantly, but it should be considered in the context of game styles. How which team plays at home and away against opponents of a particular level and style. Perhaps the comparison of styles is generally the main factor in predicting totals. If both counterparts play open football — definitely Total Over.

If both are arid — Total Under. If one will obviously attack positionally, and the second will defend itself, then the attack potential of the former will be evaluated against the defense of the second. If you are inclined to Total Under, then okay. But if there is confidence in the attack of the first, then it is worth taking not the total, but the individual total.

The history of face-to-face meetings does not play any role, although many traditionally look at it. Those were the old days, other rosters, perhaps even other coaches, with their own styles of play.

Calendar may affect. If for some team it is denser, you have to distribute the forces over the distance; it will likely be Total Under. In general, if initially the teams are sharp-attacking, with a tight and heterogeneous schedule, it is better to refrain from betting on Total Over.

Coverage will affect the total only in those very rare cases when a technical fast team has come to the “garden”. Then you can consider Total Under. But it is clear that this is an extremely rare situation in modern realities.

Well, with regards to the weather, only unusual heat for teams can affect the total. This is not even an argument to take Total Under. Just if you wanted to take Total Over initially, then it’s better not to do this.

Individual totals

At its core, analysis in the direction of individual totals is closer to the main outcomes. There are no victories without goals. So in parallel with betting on winnings, double chances and odds, there are also bets on ITO. If on the contrary, they are sure of a weak attack by the team, in general, and against the backdrop of a specific defense, in particular, then they consider ITU.

A large role in predicting IT is played by the difference in motivation, the balance of forces, the factor of one’s field, and game styles. In general, the set is really similar to parsing for the result. It’s just that the bet on IT is untied from the main outcome, which is why it is attractive. The main gap is in the accounts “0:0”, “1:1”, or the defeats of the selected side. That is, there is no victory, and ITO (1.5) is not broken. Often the amount is divided between the choice of the main outcome and IT.

Сonclusions

When considering betting on outcomes and totals, a slightly different set of factors is used. The general introductory is often a different approach. That is, the same facts for these different types of bets should be interpreted in their context.