Different Types of Echo Effect and Its Importance

In every football tournament there is an established (though final, and unstable) hierarchical position of the teams. The line given by the BS to the tournament matches is (in the first approximation) a reflection of this hierarchy. More precisely, not even the hierarchy, but its projection through the prism of public opinion.

However, public opinion is rather an inertial thing, so sometimes, with some serious changes, it takes some time for the public opinion, and consequently the BS lines, to reflect the current state of things, and not the “echo” from the previous state. Such situations represent a very serious interest for players, since for several games of betting on (or against) any team become a value bet. The player’s task in this case: firstly, as early as possible to recognize the appearance of the “echo” effect, and, secondly, to distinguish the appearance of this effect from some random splash. I see that two manifestations of the echo effect are possible: local and global.

Local “echo” appears when, due to some internal changes (game recession / recovery, player injuries, purchase / sale of players, appearance / disappearance of motivation, etc.), the team for a short space (3-10 games) the quality of the game is changing significantly. However, often in the lines (as already mentioned above) for a while the team continues to be evaluated not by the actual state of affairs, but by the “echo” of past performances.

Leading European championships are now coming to an end. Below are examples of where, in my opinion, the local “echo” effect was manifested (in brackets, my opinion about the causes of the effect is indicated).

England. 1st Division. Team Wimbledon, which was the whole championship was an unconditional outsider, the last few matches held at a good level, while having two sensational away victories over Wigan and Bradford. (Apparently, the struggle for survival put pressure on the psyche of the young players of the team, and when Wimbledon lost even theoretical chances of salvation – the team was liberated).

England. 1st Division. The team Milwaul throughout the tournament struggled to enter the Premier League. However, can’t win already 8 games in a row: 4 draws and 4 losses. (For this period, the semi-final of the FA Cup was won, which Miluol won, thus ensuring his participation in European competition for the next season. ) It looks like the preparation for the semifinals, the increased density of the calendar and psychological devastation after such a serious victory did their job. In general, the cases when the team reaches the final of the cup of their country, often accompanied by strong differences in its game.

England. 3rd division. Carlisle team three-quarters of the championship confidently closed the standings, but in the last quarter scored a number of significant victories in the matches, where the odds for their victory were very high (ie bookmakers saw it as an outsider) and has now climbed out of the relegation zone. (A new coach came to the team, leading a number of good players).

Belgium. 1st Division. Several unexpected victories of Antwerp at the finish of the championship. (The arrival of several strong players and superiority in motivation).

Italy. Serie A. 6 defeats Inter from the 17th to 25th round, some of which are: Empoli, Udinese and Brescia – with coefficients of 12, 7 and 8 respectively. (It’s all simple =) The genius of the coaching skills of Zaccheroni came). Inter is still playing weaker than the composition allows.

Germany. 1st Bundesliga. Team Gert, initially considered as a participant in the struggle for tickets to UEFA, frankly weakly started the season, suffering a series of serious defeats. The first victory only in the 10th round. (In the off-season, the leader of the Marcelino team was injured, and through him last season almost all the team’s attacks developed. ) No worthy replacement was found).

Poland. 1st Division. Leh, who has a very solid composition due to the general nesygrannosti and a string of injuries dangling in the middle of the table, however, gradually found his game and scored 4 points in the last 4 rounds. And, interestingly, the start of Lech’s take-off came in a match with Grotlin, who seems to have started a period of negative “echo” from this match (Grotlin-Leh 1-4 Away 7. 00). Which resulted in the last round of breaking contracts with several leading players.

Spain. The prime minister. Team Barcelona, which has always been one of the main contenders for the championship, at the start of the season with great difficulty gained points. Draws with Sevilla and Osasuna, defeats from Malaga and Villarreal. (Most likely, due to inexperience, Frank Rijkaard made some mistakes in preparing the team for the championship.)

Scotland. Premier League. Prematurely winning the championship Celtic just finish the season, which resulted in two home defeat. In both cases, the coefficient for the victory of the guests was more than 10.

The local echo effect can be used twice. In the beginning, with the appearance of factors that caused this effect, and subsequently in the event of their disappearance (this can even be called the “reverse echo” effect). For example, in Belgium, poorly started (because of injuries to leading players), the Standard first suffered a series of serious defeats, and then (when the situation with the composition was normalized) scored several victories, and based on a weak start, the coefficients for the Standard were quite high.

The effect of the global “echo” is observed in those cases when the team, due to some very serious changes (increase / decrease in funding, infrastructure change, serious shuffling of the composition), not just for a few matches changes the quality of the game, but blends in the hierarchical ladder. I.e. from the outsider becomes the middle peasant, from the middle peasant – a strong club, from a strong club – a grandee (and vice versa). In this case, the effect of “echo” can be observed throughout the season, and even longer. To illustrate in this case, the championship of Turkey is perfect.

An example of a positive global “echo” is Genclerbirligi. The team for the second season in a row demonstrates very good football (both in the championship and in European competition), but often continues to be evaluated in lines as an outsider, in those matches where it is no longer. (The success of Gencler is connected with the figure of their head coach and with a very competent selection policy: the team sold two leading players in the offseason, it will even be strengthened due to purchases). An example of a negative global “echo” is certainly Galatasaray (perhaps also Besiktas, but everything is more complicated there). In Galatasaray, there is a change of generations, besides the negative impact of the leadership of the team, all this led to the fact that the team takes 6th place and suffered 10 games in 23 games (the coefficients were very high). But Galatasaray continue to be guided only by the fact that it is Galatasaray, and bookmakers are forced to give high oddss to its rivals.

Speaking of a global “echo”, you can also mention the Spanish Osasuna. The team that has one of the smallest budgets in the league and rather mediocre players takes the 8th place. But here, after all, in my opinion, a slightly different case. It’s rather a tactical scheme for the coach of Pamplona Javier Aguirre: a strict game of defense on counterattacks. Therefore, Osasuna is good at playing games with a strong opponent and badly with a weak opponent. If you are interested, you can look at the lines for all Osasuna games and find out what would have happened if in all these games you were betting against a favorite.