Effect of Replacing Players of Attack on Live Betting: Should Players in Live React to Them?

Replacement is the most obvious way that coaches can influence the outcome during a match.

Such a contribution to the course of the match, as the ball packed with a replacement player, is emphasized. This is called “super-replacement”, and this event immediately falls into the spotlight.

But do football players who are on a replacement have more chances to excel than their partners who started the game from the starting whistle? The answer to this question can be vital for betting on football.

Attacking players who came on as substitutes have some advantages over their counterparts playing from the starting whistle:

• they are fresh;
• enter the game at the time of the match, when goals are usually hammered more often;
• closer to the end of the match, players get tired, and this creates more free space on the field;
• the intentions of the team can become more attacking.

The player who came on as a substitute in the 70th minute will play only 26% of the time of the match, however according to statistics during this period 33% of the total number of goals is scored. At the same time, if we compare this with the starting 26% of the time of the match, we will get only 22% of the total number of goals in this interval of the match.

Substitutions occur for a number of reasons. Injuries and red cards in the match force coaches to make unscheduled substitutions.

However, the most frequent reason for substitutions are tired and inefficient football players.

As the table below shows, 80% of the substitutions are made after an hour of play. At the same time, it can be argued that almost all the replacements held before this time of the match were made for forced reasons.

Models of replacement

The most common type of substitution is the substitution of a midfielder for another midfielder: it meets twice as often as the two most popular types of substitutions, attackers and defenders, one on another.

40% of replacements entail any tactical rebuilding, as players of the same role change to players of a different position. And, based on the table, more often these replacements are aimed at strengthening the attacking line of the team.

Substitutions made to change the potential goals of the team almost twice as often include the output of attacking players instead of their defensive plan colleagues. We can assume that such tactical changes are related to the intention to score more goals, but the rival is also in a position to react independently and make certain adjustments to the game.

In addition, a team that strengthens its attack line with a large number of players, expose its own gate to vulnerability.

And although it is difficult for us to determine the impact of one replacement on the match, we can follow the general course of events that follow after the replacement of the attacking character.

Does the game change the attacking character?

Each team has a reserve of players with different levels of capabilities. Therefore, if attack substitutions are effective, it can be assumed that more often this will happen in games between teams with greater inequality in strength.

In season 2012/2013, four big English teams – Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United – made attacking substitutions in 40 games against the teams from the bottom of the standings.

Here is some statistics:

• on average, the substitutions took place at the 69th minute, while the average presence on the field of substituting attacking players was 26 minutes;
• almost 3/4 of similar changes – this is a change of midfielder to the nominal forward;
• less than 50% of replacements led to a goal: 24 goals in these 40 matches;
• opponents differed in 27.5% of these games;
• the team that made the substitution of an attacking character, scored more goals than the opponent in 35% of cases.

At first glance, it can be said that attacking substitutions bear fruit.

However, we can easily calculate what were the chances of the teams for goals in the final stage of the match, if we use statistics and pre-match odds. Note that these data do not take into account such a thing as replacement, but from the collected results and coefficients it follows that the results almost converge.

For example, if we simulate stretches from these 40 matches, when the attack substitutions were made, and we put pre-match expectations on them from these games, we get 25 goals scored and 11 goals conceded. The actual result was 24 scored and 11 missed.

Therefore, in accordance with these data, one attacking substitution does not have a significant impact on the outcome of the match for both sides. Most goals are scored by the best teams, because they outperform the opponent in the class, and the expectation of goals increases in the course of the match.

What does this mean for players in live?

On average, attacking substitutions made in the last 20 minutes of a match or so have little impact on the chances of the team to score a goal or not at all.

Therefore, if you think that the team’s chances for a goal have changed due to an attack substitution, this is usually a subjective revaluation.