Elo Ratings in Football. Useful Tips for you to Know

Those bettors who want to bet on Champions League games should be familiar with the Elo ratings. The given system was developed by Arpad Elo, a famous American physician and chess-player, in order to better evaluate chess-players` abilities. The system was based on comparison of players` experience and sports skills. Since then, the given method has changed a lot and is now widely accepted for many kinds of sport including the most prestigious football tournament.

Elo Ratings Explained

The application of the given system means that every team has its own rank reflecting its training level at a given moment. It is clear that the higher the rank, the more powerful a team is. The rankings are not stable, and they are often recounted according to the results of games between opposing teams. The Elo ratings essence lies in the fact that winners` rankings increase at the expense of losing teams. The total amount of points at stake depends upon a difference between the opponents` rankings.

If a high-rated team wins, a losing team will be deprived of a small amount of points. However, if a win is earned by a low-rated team, its ranking will be increased by a significant amount of points. In case of a draw, the both teams` rankings will change by the same amount of scores.

Let us consider an actual example in order to completely understand Elo ratings general principles. For instance, there is a game between Juventus and Chelsea that have 1956 and 1919 points under the Elo ratings system respectively. According to the system, the both teams can lose 5% of their rankings. After certain calculations, we will find that Juventus will be risking 97 points, while Chelsea – 95 units. Thus, the total amount of scores at stake will amount to 192.

In this case, there are three possible variants.

1. Juventus wins. The team`s ranking increases by 95 points to 2051, while the Chelsea`s rating falls down to 1824.
2. Chelsea wins. The team`s ranking increases by 97 scores to 2016, while the Juventus rating goes down to 1859.
3. Draw happens. The total amount of points at stake (192) is evenly decided between the given teams (96 points to each). As a result, Chelsea`s ranking increases by one point, while that of Juventus goes into reverse by the same amount of scores. So, you can see that draws are slightly more beneficial for low-rated teams.

In general, it should be clear that more noticeable changes are found when games are played between favorites and underdogs. In this case, underdogs have a perfect possibility to significantly improve their positions within the Elo ratings.

Elo Ratings & Other Factors

The calculations mentioned above reflect the general principles of creating football Elo ratings. Nonetheless, everyone who has only a basic understanding of football will obviously notice certain disadvantages of the given method. The thing is that it does not consider crucial factors (home-field advantage, goal difference, and others).

As for the example introduced, it is clear that a 2:2 draw in Italy will be more suitable for Chelsea provided the fact that the first game ended in a goalless draw. In this case, preserving the same ranking with the Elo ratings will result in that fact that Juventus will relegate from Champions League.

That is why all the punters should apply the Elo ratings only in due consideration of main factors that will significantly influence final outcome.

Elo Ratings in Betting

Using the Elo ratings, gamblers should remember about the main drawback of the given system. The thing is that all the ratings are based on teams` previous results solely. Thus, the system does not consider a role of separate players; that is why it is possible to state that different circumstances (injured top performers, purchase of new football-players, new coach’s assignment) result in the fact that the Elo ratings efficiency can significantly decrease. The given factors will found their reflection within the given system only after a certain period of time.

Despite these negative sides, the Elo ratings method is widely applied by professional punters as a reliable tool to find bets with positive mathematical expectation because it provides them with a strong statistical basis to quite accurately calculate probability of different outcomes. In particular, it refers to serious stages of prestigious tournaments (for instance, Champions League play-offs) when weak teams have already relegated, and it is more and more difficult to correctly predict a winner of this or that game.