Everything You Need to Know to Beat Closing Line

Unfortunately, numerous bettors think only of their results paying no attention to an actual process of betting. Though some beginner gamblers may not know, the most important things concerning betting are beating the closing line and dealing with the positive expected value. Nevertheless, not every beating the closing odds is immediately turned into benefits. This process should be consistent and regular though it is not always possible.

Importance of Odds Fluctuations

Considering the fact that sports betting is a quite unpredictable industry, it is impossible for a gambler to always beat the closing line. It does not matter what abilities and forecasting skills a person has, it is just unreal to predict everything. The fact is that the closing line can be influenced even by the smallest details such as an injured player or variable weather conditions. All these and other changes will obviously lead to dealing with the negative expected value.

If we imagine that a gambler places wagers randomly, and odds act in the same way, we can expect that this gambler will be able to beat the closing line in 50% of all the times, which is explained by the usual probability theory. On the other hand, if we analyze real bets placed on football matches with real odds movements, we will see that they are grouped according to the normal distribution.

If we remove the margins from the odds, we will clearly see that it is much more difficult to make a correct prediction on the basis of the opening line than it is according to the closing odds. The above information can state that the opening odds are higher than closing ones only in about 30% of cases. Thus, placing wagers long before an event starts can result in the fact that bettors will be unable to beat the closing lines in two-thirds of all the cases.

How Often Is It Necessary to Beat the Closing Line?

Experts have calculated how often it is necessary to beat the closing odds in order to get a positive expectation. The calculations were conducted on the basis of 20 random games and odds movements. Opening-to-closing odds fluctuations were also processed in order to find out average benefits expectations.

According to the results obtained, it is necessary to beat the closing odds in three-quarters of all the cases. Only in this case, it will be possible to reckon on some positive expectation. Yes, it sounds impressive, but it is still possible when you have appropriate betting knowledge and experience.

Conclusion

It should be mentioned separately that the analysis conducted above was completely theoretical. It was centered on random games and random odds, with the average expectation being the basis. Nonetheless, it still has a different practical importance that is represented by the following things. It is much more important to pay a great attention to value betting and beat the closing odds as often as it is possible rather than concentrate on betting results only.