Expected Value as a Tool for Evaluating an Upcoming Sporting Event

Each player who considers sports betting is not just a hobby, but also a source of profit in the long term, tries to find the optimal strategy for the game, which would be profitable at a distance. One-time winnings are just a coincidence; there is no point in relying on them. 

One of the most effective ways to calculate how much a particular bet turns out to be successful is mathematical expectation. Thanks to its calculation, it will be possible to understand whether such an event will be able to generate income in the long term. This is what experienced players are guided by when choosing the right event.

Features of the calculation of mathematical expectation

Calculation of mathematical data will help to identify the pattern, as well as determine how suitable the game is for you in one or another bookmaker. A lot of events should be taken into account, which will make it possible to evaluate their perspective at a distance.

Calculating the mathematical expectation is quite simple. It is necessary to use a formula where the difference of the products of a positive result by its probability and negative by its outcome is calculated. Best of all, expectation will help display the formula:

M = (S * K – S) * W – S * L

It uses the following values:

• M — expectation;
• S — the forecast amount;
• K — quote for the event;
• W — the probability of a positive outcome;
• L — odds of losing.

Actually, S * K – S is directly the net size of the gain. The formula for calculating the mathematical expectation does not make sense to apply if you bet on only one event. Thanks to it, you will be able to predict the result at a distance. This is precisely the value of the presented form and method of calculation.

Let’s try to parse the mathematical expectation on a concrete example from the world of football. For example, a meeting is expected between Dortmund Borussia and Bavaria. The bookmaker offers the following outcome options and odds on them:

• victory of Borussia — 3.30;
• Bayern win — 2.18;
• draw outcome of the meeting — 3.95.

Let’s try to calculate the mathematical expectation for this particular event. One of the most difficult elements in the formula is the probability of winning a bet. You can evaluate it using the odds that are offered by the bookmaker. This is done very simply, just 1 divided by the proposed quote.

In this case, the probability of victory for Borussia will be 1 / 3.30 = 0.303 or 30.3%. Having made similar calculations for the other two outcomes, it will be possible to see that the victory of Bavaria is estimated at 45.9%, and a draw outcome of the standoff at 25.3%.

So, let’s try to evaluate the mathematical expectation in the context of the victory of the Dortmund Borussia. Since 2 outcome options do not suit us at once, we need to calculate their probability. It is 71.2%.

For a more convenient calculation, let’s take a round bet size, for example, $100. So, in case of victory of Borussia, the gain will be 330 dollars. However, then we deduct 100 dollars (bet size). It turns out that the net profit from this event is $230.

Let’s try to substitute the obtained values ​​in our formula. It turns out that 0.303 * 230 – 0.712 * 100 = 69.69 – 71.2 = -1.51. As you can see, such a bet option is characterized by a negative mathematical value. This does not mean that Borussia will necessarily lose in this meeting (although the probability of this is higher than a positive outcome for it), simply if you take several events with such odds at a distance, the result may be disappointing.

Such a statement is rational only for a number of events. In a solitary confrontation, there is always the possibility of sensation and an unexpected result that no statistical program can calculate. Despite the fact that the sport is full of surprises, there are still certain patterns, so they must be taken into account if you consider forecasts as the main and stable source of income for yourself.

A positive expectation for a particular event does not at all expect that it will necessarily generate income. However, in the long run, it is better to choose events with a positive balance, which will become the key to stable financial profit. For the correct calculation of expectations, it is extremely important to be able to correctly calculate the probabilities of outcomes. Sometimes it is really difficult to do this because of the odd odds that are offered in betting shops. Among the mathematical factors that must be taken into account by the player, we highlight:

• The probability of a positive outcome for them.
• Quotes offered by the bookmaker.
• The amount of the bet.

Proper banking is another secret that sports betting will bring a steady income and will help bring profits to a whole new level.

Negative expectation

As stated above, a negative expectation does not necessarily mean a sentence. Yes, the probability of such an event is lower, but the player will be able to take their own due to the level of odds, which is offered in a particular shop. 

Often, the client of the bookmaker blindly believes in a pre-selected strategy and is not ready to change in case of negative results for them. To better illustrate the situation, let’s see how the players behave in the same situation. Let’s say a tennis tournament is taking place, where a clear favorite with a strong average player, conditional Nadal and Chorich, meet. For the victory of the Spaniard, bookmakers offer odds of 1.30, but the triumph of a Croat is estimated at a quote of 3.70.

So, before the meeting, an ordinary player thinks approximately as follows — Nadal is higher in the world ranking, is in good shape, and therefore must win this confrontation. A more experienced fan will consider the following factors:

• The history of personal meetings, which testifies in favor of Nadal, which means that he knows the opponent’s style well and managed to find their weak points.
• Ground is the favorite cover of the Spanish tennis player, on which he simply has no equal in the world, so even the recent successes of Chorich should not become an obstacle to achieving a positive result.
• The weather, the level of motivation of each athlete, other circumstances.
• Thus, the probability of the victory of the Spanish tennis player in this particular confrontation is much higher, which is why bets are made on him.

However, an experienced handicapper comes from a slightly different point of view. Since the calculations showed that the probability of Nadal’s victory is 70%, the odds of 1.30 for their victory can hardly be called profitable. Studies show that the quote must be at least 1.43 in order to receive a stable profit at a distance.

At the same time, the probability of Chorich’s success is 30%, since in tennis a draw outcome of the confrontation is impossible. Simple calculations make it clear that even odds in the region of 3.34 will allow you to “go to zero” over time, and the proposed 3.70 will bring profit at all.

Suppose this confrontation still ends with the victory of Rafael Nadal. However, in this case, an experienced player will not even pay attention to it, because the calculated mathematical expectation clearly proves that a selection of fights with such odds will allow you to count on income.

Most fans rely on easy, momentary gains. In reality, it is necessary to calculate everything in order to minimize the likelihood of a negative outcome at a distance. In this case, the negative expectation is due to the fact that the bookmaker offers underestimated odds for one of the athletes. Yes, in the short term this is likely to generate income, but if you look at a series of confrontations, the result is unlikely to be positive and will not please the fans.

One of the main secrets of a successful and truly winning game is the ability to correctly match the odds and chances of teams (rivals). It is also always important to find several events at once, so that bets begin to bring you income over time.

What are the benefits of calculating math?

It is enough to apply the proposed formula to understand whether such an event will be able, as well as similar ones, to become a source of stable income for you. It is very difficult to predict the results in the world of sports, but science is a stubborn thing, it is extremely difficult to go against mathematical calculation.

Practice proves that the calculations made allow us to feel confident. Initially, the results may not be the best, but over time, everything should work out. Even professional players refuse to calculate the mathematical expectation, because they make predictions quite randomly. It is extremely difficult to find a sequence in the logic of their actions, which leads to losses.

The correct distribution of funds and the search for events with profitable odds are tasks that even beginner players can accomplish today. Thanks to the calculation of the mathematical expectation, it will also be possible to find out which bookmakers offer their players really favorable odds, and which of them is clearly not able to fully satisfy the requirements of the audience. Such information is extremely important, because the amount of income of each user directly depends on the level of margin and the quotation indicator.

Contrary to popular belief, calculating an indicator takes only a matter of seconds. Yes, it’s quite difficult to calculate it in live, because there the odds change too quickly, although if we are talking about the same football, it does not look impossible. The correct analysis of mathematical expectation is:

• guaranteed profit from sports betting;
• the ability to give winning predictions even over a long distance;
• improved understanding of game analytics.

Now this format of sports betting is becoming increasingly popular, because players want to insure their assets and minimize the likelihood of failures. It is worth noting that the mathematical expectation does not exclude them at all, and sports confrontations — the thing as a whole is quite unpredictable. Profit will be able to get due to more frequent wins or bets on events with high odds, which, although far from always successful, will bring income through odds.

Thus, the advantages of calculating the mathematical expectation are completely obvious. Now, sports forecasts over a long distance will cease to be chaotic for you and will become systematic, and a small setback will not be a challenge to the budget. That is why the scientifically proven theory has found such active application in the context of sports betting, as thousands of players have already managed to see for themselves to calculate long-term results.