Good Beginning is Half the Battle. Does it Work in Football?

Even beginner sports fans know that every win in soccer is worth three points. Nevertheless, only experienced punters understand that some points are more significant than others. The given article is going to explain why this idea exists and how usual gamblers can apply the knowledge obtained to their gambling.

Before everything else, it should be stated that there are two possible situations in football when wins are considered to be of the highest value. The first one is found when a game is played between the teams staying close together in a league table. In football slang, this situation is also described as a six-pointer because one team wins three points, and the other loses the same quantity, which totals in six points.

The second situation refers to the start of every season and namely to the first six games. It was discovered that these very games can be very important for betting purposes because their results can essentially predetermine teams’ further performance throughout the whole season.

Six Games Significance

In fact, six games create a rather short period that will not suffice to correctly predict a future course of events, but there is still much to learn. The six games are three home and three away games that can show a teams’ performance level after a rather long pre-season period.

Also, you should not forget that a new season implies a lot of new conditions. First of all, it refers to bought players, hired managers and even new stadia implying unusual conditions both for home and away teams. Thus, the first six games are necessary to predict the possible impact of everything mentioned above on teams in the future. Finally, you should not forget that every season sees newly promoted teams start playing against unfamiliar and more powerful opponents, which is also very interesting for the gamblers.

Good Start

As a rule, those teams who manage to achieve a certain success after the first six games will be showing the same results during the rest of the season. Thus, if you see top-four teams after the first six games are played, there is an extremely high probability that one of them will eventually win the main prize.

At the same time, some painful drops also happen; some teams perform above average at the start of the season, while the rest games are played poorly by them. For example, one of such cases happened in 14/15 English Premier League season when Aston Villa finished the season at the 17th rank having previously occupied the 6th place after the first games.

Poor Start

Similarly to the tendency concerning the teams managed to occupy the highest places of the league table after the first six games, teams that showed a poor start tend to play all the other games of the season in the same way. Yes, there can be exceptions, but the fact remains: all of three bottom teams after the given number of games have the highest probability of being relegated after the end of the season.

Practical Application

The above information can be used by the gamblers in different situations. For instance, let us take a look at outright betting. To tell the truth, it is almost impossible to predict a league winner prior to its start. However, the probability to place the correct prediction increases as the first six games are played. Finally, the early season results can be used to create Poisson distribution or expected goals models for the rest of the season.