How Much ROI and Yield is Good for Long Term Sports Betting?

How to evaluate your own success from a distance? ROI and YIELD indicators help with this, there is also a breakeven point that allows you to calculate the percentage of bet passes that each bettor needs to play.

How to calculate ROI in grade bets: formula

A complete interpretation of the term ROI sounds like Return on investments. In business, this term is used as an indicator of the effectiveness of invested funds. To analyze the “effectiveness” of sports betting, the simplest formula for calculating ROI is used.

Any betting player is interested in how much they can lose or win in the medium to long term. The usual calculation of profit/loss does not give a complete picture of the effectiveness of the bets made, since it does not take into account the initially invested funds.

Agree, if 1000 dollars were invested, and a profit of 100 dollars came from them, this does not go in any comparison with the option when 100 dollars were invested, and the profit was 1000 dollars?

Often, to attract a player with no experience, the forecaster indicates an inflated ROI. And in fact, this is not too difficult, because the amount of the bank is the basis of the formula for calculating the ROI, and the bank can be made by anyone. In order to calculate the ROI, the amount of the bet and the bank must be known, which allows the information to be provided in the right way. In this case, the bet amount will reflect the game style of the forecaster.

If the amount is almost the same and amounts to 3-6% from the bank, it can be assumed that the forecaster plays normally, and remains pretty good. If it is common for a player to bet on half the pot, then this can bring an incredibly high ROI in a short period, however, over the course of such overbetting has quite noticeable financial losses.

ROI calculation formula for bets

ROI = (loss or profit / bank) * 100%, where loss or profit is the amount of payments minus the amount of bets.

Example 1: Everything is very simple – you need to divide the net profit received by all the money spent into bets for a certain period. For example, take only three bets:

1. A bet of 1,000 dollars bet on odds 1.5 played, resulting in a net profit of 500 dollars.
2. Another bet, the size of 1000 dollars passed at odds of 1.6, profit – 600 dollars.
3. The third bet, and again lost by 1000 dollars – the bettor lost the money.

It is not difficult to calculate that the total cost of bets amounted to 3,000 dollars.

Net income (Net Revenue): 500 + 600-1000 = 100 dollars. Thus, of the three bets, we earned 100 dollars.

To calculate the ROI, divide the profit by the costs: 100/3000 = 0.03 or 3%.

Of course, on the basis of such a calculation, it is impossible to draw conclusions about the profitability of bets – too few events have been taken into account. But when you take into account hundreds, and preferably thousands of bets, the return on investment indicator will really reflect your profit.

Some bettors calculate ROI for a certain period of time, knowing how many bets they made, their size and profit. For example, if a player made 400 bets of 200 dollars per year, then they invested 80,000 dollars in total. Suppose they know that net profit for the year was 8.000 dollars. Then the percentage of ROI will be equal to (8.000 / 80.000) x 100% = 10%.

Example 2: And if our bank is already not $2000, but let’s say $25,000, then the same earnings of $500 look as follows:

500/25 000 * 100% = 2%

Catch the difference? Forecasters can draw for themselves simply sky-high ROI, simply reducing the size of the bank in the formula and increasing the amount of winnings, and people are doing it.

It should be noted that the concepts of ROI in sports betting vary. Some actually mean YIELD by ROI. The classic ROI formula takes into account the amount of investment, and in our case, this is the amount of our initial bank.

Determine the size of the bet after calculating the ROI

Why, in addition to our own statistics, can we consider ROI? In terms of the advantage over the bookmaker’s playing line, you can calculate the safe face value of the sports bet and choose the right strategy for the game.

Betting strategy experts advise in choosing the strategy and face value of the bet to take into account the current state of the bankroll, the probability of being left without game money and the risk of losing profit.

On the whole, two strategies for determining the face value of a bet are divided into two groups — flat and interest bet, and a non-combustible bank. The first provides a fixed bet regardless of the current size of the bankroll.

A few words about each strategy for determining the size of the bet and the impact of ROI on this indicator:

1. This format for determining the size of the bet is used exclusively for events in which there are two outcomes (for example, handicap and total) and with odds in the region of 1.9 (if you put the same bet size on the odds of 1.5 and 3.6, then there will be no sense in the strategy). Flat will be profitable and show a good ROI only if you guess more than 54% of the bets. If your ROI is less than 3.5%, then focus on the flat range up to 3%.
2. Interest bet. The stack value changes depending on the state of your game bank at the current moment. Let’s say you bet 1% of the bank — 1 dollar from 100, 2 from 200 and so on. The advantages of the strategy as opposed to the flat are that you cannot lose your entire pot even with the worst outcome, because the pot size itself decreases in proportion to the decrease in the game pot. But the strategy also has drawbacks — if you play aggressively, you can notice significant subsidence.
3. Profit bet. Bonus strategy in which the face value of the bet is calculated according to the formula Amount of profit/(odds — 1). For example, you want to make a profit of $100 and the odds for the next bet are 1.4. In this case, the bet will be equal to 250 dollars. So you will return your winnings and get the expected net profit.

You can go even deeper into each of the strategies, for example, using the Kelly criterion. It provides calculations using the probability of winning. All these strategies will help not only increase ROI, but also correctly determine the optimal bet size for a successful game.

When is ROI useful and when does it look just like a pretty number?

In business, they still argue whether there is a sense in this indicator (it does not take into account much). But the usefulness of ROI for a player on bets is much more obvious than in business.

Everything is much simpler in sports betting: the ROI value can and should be estimated, but only in the medium and long term. In a short period with a small number of betting players, this indicator can go off scale or, on the contrary, depress the player, but at the same time not display an objective picture. That is, to be useless. True numbers are visible only after analysis of 500-1000 bets. Only at a distance can this indicator be interpreted correctly.

The more bets made, the more useful the ROI.

If on the Internet you meet ROI in the region of 20-25%, it is possible that you are a beginner who is just lucky in the first few bets. A good indicator for a long period of time and with a large number of bets varies from 4% to 10%. That is why many analytic resources begin to trust ROI only after a large number of bets are made.

How to calculate YIELD: sports betting formula

Often we can meet cappers, who advertise their simply cosmic percentage of winnings everywhere. Most often, they do this to show what good cappers they are, own fixed games info, and just great analysts.

It is very difficult to actually verify the veracity of their words. And here comes an indicator such as YIELD in sports betting to help us.

YIELD – characterizes the ratio of the total winnings to the sum of all bets. Simply put, this is tipster’s profitability, how much they bet and how much they have won for the entire period.

YIELD provides other player information. It doesn’t really matter which player the bank has. Only the fact that the player gets from their investments is important.

The formula for calculating YIELD in bets:

YIELD = (loss or profit/bet amount) * 100%,

where the loss or profit is the amount of payments minus the amount of bets.

The main difference between YIELD (percentage of turnover) and ROI is that the bank amount does not matter in YIELD calculation. It all depends on how much money is in circulation, and the profitability will be associated with it.

Consider an example.

We won 25,000 dollars not with a classic flat, but with catch-up. Though not from the first iteration, we were lucky, and we took our course from the second iteration, only doubling the initial bid of 25,000 dollars (we are considering the option that we flirted both times with a choice of 2.0).

What happened? Using a strategy that is more aggressive and dangerous for the game bank, under a favorable scenario, we get a “profitability” indicator even higher with the same amount of winnings. But this does not mean that with this approach we will be more profitable at a distance. It is very important to understand in bets: the more bets, the more logical the decrease in your profitability will be. This does not mean that you have become less profitable, but rather the opposite.

It is much more profitable to have 10% yield with 500 bets than 15% yield after 50 bets.

Because in the first case, your profit at a bet of 1,000 dollars will be 50,000 dollars, and in the second case with the same bet amounts – 7,500 dollars.

That is why, in order to evaluate your activity or another player by this parameter, it is important not to break away from the distance (with its increase, YIELD will always be lower) and the strategy that the player applies.

To be honest, YIELD gives maximum objectivity about the player’s capabilities only when flat, in other cases the picture will always be distorted.

We will not talk about the strategy and how justified the classic flat in sports betting is. Let’s only note that a much more important criterion for the success of your game is the profit at a distance. How you will consider it — in monetary terms, in terms of ROI or YIELD — is not of serious importance. The only important thing is whether you manage to maintain a positive game with each new hundred bets. It is difficult for a player to keep a plus at a distance, and there are several objective reasons for this.

In order to claim significant winnings while maintaining financial discipline (no more than 5-7% per bet), a player needs to make more bets. And if they are good at 30 bets per month, this does not mean at all that with an increase in the number of bets the player’s “profitability” will not become lower. On the contrary, it will almost certainly fall.

More bets – more opportunities for the bookmaker with their margin to get you.

Bookmakers know that the longer a player is in a game, the greater the chance of a profit for a betting operator.

If you leave the comfortable number of bets unchanged, but increase the bankroll and, accordingly, the bet amount according to balanced money management, it will also be difficult to maintain the same indicators (in percent). Because winning 10% of the bank every month with a bankroll of 100,000 dollars and 1,000,000 dollars is not the same.

It is rare that anyone can abstract from the sums that are at stake; a large bet imposes much more restrictions and pressures that directly affect the results. The player tries to take less risk, ignores some matches that they would play in a normal situation, or chooses much more accurate and less profitable options. After all, no one canceled psychology, and in bets on sports it is abundant – real “games of the mind”!

Financial discipline is the basis of the fundamentals, which is so lacking for players pouring another deposit into their account in the betting shop. This is what should be remembered by those who decide to engage in bets on a regular basis.

Break-even point in sports betting

The breakeven point in the bets allows you to find out what percentage of the pass the player needs for the absence of losses, using the average odds of all their own bets. The point of zero loss in its meaning is a zero ROI.

Example: The simplest example here is at 4.0. If you play these odds 25%/75%, then this is a game at zero and without losses. And if 26%/74% — constantly approaching the growth of the bank, up to 25% means a constant approach to a decrease in the bank.

But this is not a pure formula, the commissions of banks are usually put in it, services and many other expenses. Indeed, according to the formula, you can have YIELD in the plus by 1-2%, but in fact you go negative because you did not take into account the costs of the commission from replenishment, withdrawal, conversion and other – other expenses.

And remember, it’s better to do all the calculations over long distances, from 500 bets.