How to Beat the Bookmaker?

Probably now you think that all this is nonsense, because if everyone can make money on bets, then why are bookmakers still not ruined? And why, according to statistics, 90% turn out to be a loser, and to beat the bookmaker it is possible to a little?

In fact, everything is very simple. In the betshop you can steadily win, but to achieve this, one desire is not enough. You will first have to acquire a baggage of knowledge, and in the future show your resourcefulness, diligence and discipline. That’s when the profit will be. The problem: most simply do not know or do not understand this elementary truth. Remember, please! Before you do something, you must first learn how to do it, and then start to act.

Usually there is such a picture: the average player, grabbing information about betting, which is called “on the heels” by reading obsolete articles on the sites, scraps of messages on the forums, learning something from friends, etc. starts betting and hopes to immediately beat the bookmaker. As a result of such ill-considered actions, over time, he begins to suffer losses … And, despite all the “efforts”, sooner or later goes into negative. Why is this happening?

The player’s error is obvious! He, picking up information on the “pieces” from different sources and not figuring out the end in all the features of sports betting, started the game. At some point, it affected everything! The most unpleasant thing is that in this way almost every player of betting betting acts. That’s where this stunning figure comes from in 90% of the losers. As it was already said above:”Before you do something, you must first learn how to do it,” otherwise you can’t do anything sensible. But since you are reading this article, then you are on the right track. Therefore, let’s begin our introduction to the world of professional sports betting with a review of its fundamentals.

Three components of success

Getting a stable income from a sports bet is held by three whales on which all professional betting is based:

1. Operational management;
2. Competent analysis;
3. Full accounting

These three whales, three rigorous rules of progress, without respecting at least one of them yours, the chances of steadily winning become very transparent, but rather generally impossible.

If you already have experience, it can be known, in most cases the game is under the scheme:today he won 100 dollars, lost 150 tomorrow … Often players throw sports bets, without even bothering to figure out what is in it cause. And the reason is trivial:the failure of one, and often all three basic rules of betting. Therefore, you must understand that compliance with each of the success factors is of great importance, since they are closely interrelated.

Operational management – this factor maintains the state and is responsible for the allocation of your financial flows.

Competent analysis – on this factor the success of your bets depends directly.

Full accounting is a “summing” factor that summarizes the joint work of the first and second factors, as well as your entire game as a whole.

Operational management of the game bank (man management) is one of the mandatory conditions for a stable win in the bookmaker, but often it is not executed. Improper financial management is one of the most common causes of failure when playing sports betting. In betting, it is impossible to achieve at least some serious profits without skilled management. Without proper management, your venture turns into a senseless waste of money and time. The idea is simple:operational management plays a major role in professional sports betting.

It is necessary to determine the start-up capital

So, first, you need to get a starting capital (a game bank) for betting on sports. Set a fixed amount of money, allocated specifically for betting. Your gambling bank is a BIG and LONG-TERM investment in a sports bet, which will subsequently receive dividends in the form of winnings from your bets. It should be understood – this money can be used ONLY for sports betting => it will not be possible to periodically carry 300 dollars when you want to drink beer.

Please be aware that any investment is a risk. Try to be mentally prepared to risk money in order to try to beat the bookmaker. Many newcomers do not understand the importance of the role of the game bank, so I give three main arguments in his favor.

The gaming bank is needed for three reasons:

1. Control your bets, know exactly how much you give and how much you get;
2. Keep yourself on the “invisible leash” and do not lose all the funds at once;
3. There have always been “retreats”, i.e. the opportunity to recoup and return to the previous level of the game without investing additional funds.

Once you have a suitable bank for the game, immediately move to its management. The process of management (management) of the game bank is carried out using financial strategies. The goal of any financial strategy is to optimize your winnings and reduce the likelihood of financial collapse (bankruptcy) or large drawdowns. In fact, there are a lot of financial strategies. There are basic strategies like Flat, Interest from the Bank, Kelly, Martingale, D’Alembert, etc. And there are “subordinate” strategies, i.e. which are a partial modification of the main strategies.

Almost every successful player uses some kind of his strategy, which to some extent is a modification of the main strategy.

Criteria for choosing a financial strategy

When choosing your financial strategy, try to follow the principles:

1. The strategy should not be aggressive, i.e. The bet amount after the loss should not increase exponentially. It is best when the bet is either strictly fixed (for example, as in “Flat”), or calculated in% of the ratio from the bank (for example, as in the “Fixed Interest” strategy).
2. It is good, if in the strategy there is an element of “analysis”, i.e. when calculating the size of the bet, the percentages of the probability of winning a bet appear (for example, as in the Kelly Criterion Strategy).
3. Never use Martingale and other strategies based on “maybe”. They are mostly designed for beginners or complete lazy people who do not want to do sports analysis.

If desired, you can use more than one strategy. Only in this case do not forget that each strategy needs to have its own separate gaming bank.

Competent analysis of sports events

An inseparable component of professional sports betting is a competent analysis of sporting events. It depends on him the fate of both your bets and the entire campaign in order to beat the bookmaker. Now I outline in general terms how to make a forecast for a sport event. But first, you promise something:

1. To make forecasts only for those sports in which you understand. For example:if you have been watching football matches for 10 years, then you should only work with football and you do not need to “climb” basketball, hockey or baseball. There you simply will have nothing to do.

Right now, evaluate your strengths, determine in which sports you know, and in which there is not! select for yourself one (in the extreme case of two/three) sports and completely immerse yourself in their detailed study.

Professionals of sports betting come ONLY like that! No wonder they are so strong in their work, because all their efforts are concentrated at one point, i.е. in one sport or even in one sports league.

2. To be guided not by the number of forecasts, but by QUALITY. Do not try to analyze at once 35 different sporting events in one day, this will lead to nothing good. You’re not working in a factory, are you?

The number of your forecasts is inversely proportional to their quality. Therefore, it is better to spend HR-POLTOR on pumping 3-4 bets and be 98% sure of their outcome, than for the same time “tune” 30-35 predictions, which hold only on intuition.

3. Analysis of a sporting event is a CREATIVE WORK, so make your forecasts without haste, without hurrying, paying attention to every detail.

A good forecast can’t be made “quick”, it’s not for you to make vareniki. Take the time to brainwash and think through the possible results of the game.

Now it’s time to talk about the most elementary formula for compiling any sports forecast. Just want to note, this method of making forecasts is “general” and suitable for any kind of sports.

The formula for success

It looks like this:Statistics + Analytics + Intuition = Sport Forecast

1. When compiling a sports forecast, you need a starting point from the account. As a rule, statistics of teams look at this. So do not only players, but also bookmakers, which on some events expose the coefficients, based only on statistics. The analysis will help in the future to better assess the real alignment of the forces of teams and athletes.

When considering statistics, I do not advise too much to go into it. The greatest value is the data for the last 3-4 games. When working with team sports (for example, football), you must understand that the composition indicated in the statistics and the upcoming match may differ.

2. Analysis of the game event – the main factor that completely and completely affects the correctness of your forecast. Analysis of the match, is to consider the factors that can affect the outcome of the match. And the factors, in turn, are of two types:direct and indirect. Indirect factors should be understood as various force majeure circumstances, which “indirectly” can affect the outcome of the match and which it is almost impossible to predict.

For example, a sharp change in weather conditions, injuries, the behavior of fans in the stands and other surprises. As you can see, it is practically impossible to predict this kind of information in advance (well, except for the weather, perhaps) and therefore indirect factors can be practically ignored when making the forecast. Much more interest is represented by direct factors. This information should be put into your forecasts.

Visible factors:the form of players to the beginning of the match (their strengths and well-being, previously received injuries), motivation, fighting spirit, interpersonal relationships within the team …

3. INTUITION! Know, at all professional бетторов the feeling of intuition is developed to a limit. They just need to look in line, as they already feel the outcome of the game. Never score an inner voice, on the contrary, listen to it. I emphasize NOT blindly obey, but just listen.

Intuition will be an invisible final touch for your forecast. It will develop in a geometric progression along with your experience. Some new experience will generate more and more intuition. Change your first hundred sports predictions, and you’ll see for yourself!

Listen to yourself not only by starting to make a prediction, but also by choosing a suitable match from the line. Sometimes, he opened the line, you look, like a suitable uncomplicated match, the odds are good, but suddenly, the inner voice turns on and calls to abandon this event. It is better to listen to yourself and give up this bet. In general, take out the cotton wool from the ears and start listening to yourself! In the end, you will not regret and maybe you can still beat the bookmaker.

Keep a record

When investing money in a sports bet, you always need to know how much you give, and how much you get. It is for this bettor it is important to keep statistics of his game, i.e. accounting bets – to know the objective situation of their affairs => STUDY ON ERRORS. The crowd of players, like a herd of sheep, rushes from day to day, allowing the same mistakes. No one even thinks of stopping for a minute and analyzing their actions. Why do I not get “something” or “something” … NO, it’s easier for them to continue the game than to think about their actions. “I will continue to bet and sooner or later I will be rewarded for this” – such a mindset for most sportswear fraerers. This is fundamentally a misconception about sports investment.

Remember, please, once and for all! A successful player simply has to periodically analyze his bets in the “past” in order to avoid such mistakes in the “future”. As was correctly said, “The key to excellence lies in self-knowledge,” so you must be able to identify the cause of your pro accounts. And it will help you in this, only the BET ACCOUNT.

What is the preponderance over the bookmaker’s line and how to determine it for yourself. The advantage is the “price” of your game, i.e. what profit or loss you have from each $100 (or dollars) put. For clarity, an example:two players, Petya and Vasya. Petya wins 80% of the bets, and Vaska only 45%. It may seem that Petya is doing better, but in fact, not a fact. It turns out that Petit has an average coefficient of one bet of 1.2, and Vasya has 2.3. Now let’s calculate the preponderance over the line for each player:

• Player 1:80% * 1.2-1 = 0.96-1 = -0.04 or -4%
• Player 2:45% * 2.3-1 = 1.035-1 = 0.035 or 3.5%

Therefore, with every hundred bucks delivered, Player1, guessing 80% of the bets, loses the bookmaker $4, and Player2 with his 45% raises $3.5. An example, simple, but allowing to understand why the number of won bets is not an indicator. Overweight is an objective assessment of your actions.

Similarly, overweight over the line calculate for yourself, i.e. thanks to the history of bets, you first determine the average% of their winnings. This is done by simply adding the numbers with a “+” and “-” sign in the “balance” table field, for example, 8.5 + (-2.5) … + 15.8 = 45%. Then add all the numbers from the coefficient field and divide by the total number of bets, for example (2,4 + 1,65 + 2,6 + 1,9 + 2,95)/5 = 2,3. Thus, determine the average coefficient of one bet. The obtained numbers are substituted in the formula, X * K-1 =%, where X is the winning percentage of the bets, K is the average coefficient of one bet. 45 * 2.3 = 1.035-1 = 0.035 = 3.5%. Now you know the “price” of your game, which allows you to judge the real state of your affairs. Not all! The second great feature of discounting is the ability to analyze your past bets.

Believe in yourself and become better!

If you are serious about making a profit with the bookmaker – stand firmly on your feet and never step back half way. You can cite 1000 and 1 example as a lot of promising players, could not cope with themselves and throwing sports betting, or returning to a random game. They simply did not have the strength and willpower.

As stated at the beginning of this mini-course, professional sports betting is NOT the principle of the nuclear reactor of the 1967 model. However, in any endeavors there may be difficulties. Therefore, you must be able to overcome them. The road to 1000 kilometers begins with a small step. And it is very important on this way to go CONSTANTLY – IN WHAT IT WILL NOT BE!

Therefore, do not be rash, if you set a goal to receive a stable profit from sports betting, strive for it despite everything! Yes, that’s so simple, without exclamation marks. Only one word is discipline.

Discipline is a unique process of thinking and acting, killing all incontinence, it develops willpower and does not allow to reconcile with the failure. This is the foundation for any productive action! Discipline is one of the main qualities of a professional player, the fate of bets largely depends on it. You feel a lack of discipline – rather, start developing it, in the future it will be very useful.

Sometimes, especially with a long-term game with a bookie, bets start getting bored. Even winning constantly, all the same, with time, the brains start to tire. There can come a so-called crisis of the player – when you are tired and think of abandoning sports bets for good. To prevent this, there is one way to “protect”, simple as a Siberian shoe!

To betting did not have time to get bored, rationally alternate it with rest. Simply put, take a break. For example, set a goal to increase the game bank by 20%, as soon as you reach this goal – take a short pause. Even small, but do it! During a break, completely relax from sports betting, ventilate the brains and store energy. And after recovering your strength, again go out into the ring and knock out the bookmakers.

Always polish skills in the field of sports betting. Increase your knowledge of sports betting in various ways! Knowledge does not happen much! Develop analytics, intuition and other qualities inherent in a successful bettor. You get only GOOD from this! Remember – the strength of a professional in his knowledge! Do I need to add anything to this?

The value of any knowledge in the application in practice – do not be afraid to experiment and act boldly, because in any case, only in this way you will be able to gain EXPERIENCE.