How to Find Good Forecasts of Bets on Sports?

Every novice bettor comes to the use of sports forecasts.  It’s another matter that new users do not know what analytical service to give preference to.  After all, today there are a lot of different sites offering betting forecasts, which significantly complicates the choice. The player sometimes does not understand the difference between paid and free options, approaches to forecasting and other important points.  Adding to this the existence of a multitude of fraudulent schemes, we get a completely bleak picture.  However, it is enough to understand the subject only once, after which 95% of possible “candidates” are eliminated.

What are the forecasts?

First of all, the player should be interested in the method of obtaining the forecast.  There are 2 ways:

• statistical, where the calculation of the probabilistic outcome of a match is conducted on different indicators;
• mathematical, where only those data that can be expressed in figures are evaluated.

At first, it seems that statistics exceed in mathematics by using more parameters.  For example, it takes into account the psychological form of athletes, and their physical condition, and even fatigue after the previous game.  However, it must be understood that:

• Only a psychologist can judge the psychological form of an athlete, and only after full-time work with him;
• the physical state can change during the day several times, which excludes this parameter as significant in predicting the outcome of a sport event that takes place in a day or more;
• The previous game may not cause fatigue, but on the contrary – cheer the athlete, which will ensure his advantage over the opponent.

And just like you can “overturn” any other parameter that can’t be expressed by a number or a coefficient.

As an example of a mistaken interpretation of fatigue, it is worthwhile to bring the biathlonist Sorokin (Gusev), who in the 2003-2004 season was able to mobilize after the sprint and in the mass start (which took place only a day later!) Showed an impressive result, giving way to the palm of the primacy of the famous Norwegian L.  Thierhom.  But, at that time, most of the statistical predictions predicted the debacle of an athlete.

In addition, information on physical condition and psychological mood by statisticians is taken from open sources.  First of all, the media are used, or even the data is “thought out” by the analyst. That is, the reliability of this information raises great doubts.

In mathematical forecasts, everything is much simpler, and therefore – more efficient:

• Only actual data on the effectiveness of the game (statistics of wins, personal meetings, etc. ) are taken into account;
• Information is taken only from official sources, and in its collection, processing and systematization, a person does not participate – everything is done by the aggregator;
• The mathematical algorithm calculates much faster than a person, it does not get tired and does not tend to make mistakes due to inattention;
• The mathematician who developed the algorithm for calculating the forecast for bets has time and the opportunity to constantly refine it when the statistical analyst has not enough time for it.

It is this approach that provides much more passableness of mathematical forecasts in comparison with statistical ones.  As an example, a curious game within the framework of the control matches in hockey in 2015 is suitable.

“Sochi” – “Jokerite”.  The statistical forecast in favor of the Finnish team, despite the equal effectiveness in previous meetings (2: 2), due to the peak shape of Niklas Hagman.  Mathematical algorithms in most predicted the victory of “Sochi”, because in numerical terms the team showed a more effective game.  The result of the meeting was the victory of Sochi with the score 2: 1.

If you analyze further matches between the teams, the Sochi club secured its superiority by winning 5 victories in the KHL and a 2016 control match.  The potential of the team was obvious when calculating the total of 5 games between these teams.

Important! In some cases, statistical forecasters can give predictions that have come down with mathematical patency.  The player will have to decide what he likes more, and in accordance with this make his choice.

Who is truthworthy?

Having dealt with the methods of creating predictions for bets, the player should understand – what analytical services can be trusted, and which ones should be better circumvented in a large arc.  If we consider purely objective indicators, then we should pay attention to the declared patency of analysts – it should be more than 50%, but less than 75%.  For example, the passage through paid forecasts presented on our website is in the range from 52% to 61. 5%.

This is due to the total inability to predict the outcome of 100 matches out of 100, because in accordance with the theory of probability, the longer some phenomenon lasts, the greater the chances that it will stop.  In addition, the sport is quite unpredictable, and there are a lot of random factors that completely cross out the most scrupulously calculated outcomes.

Premier League of Northern Ireland, 2012.  The match “Colrene” – “Glenavon”.  By the time the match began, the strongest wind had started, due to which Paul Owens was able to score twice with a corner kick.  The gusts of the wind were not taken into account in the forecasts, so the outcome of 3: 1 in favor of “Coleraine” was a complete surprise for all.

But, in addition to the stated effectiveness, it is worth considering the seriousness of the service, that is:

• Analytical services value their reputation, so they do not change their domain name. Of course, the new analyst also has to start somewhere, but the registration data is worth remembering, then to compare them with the next indicator.
• Openness of statistics on the patency of forecasts. First, it must be reliable (that is, meet the declared limits). Secondly, statistics should be maintained from the date that follows the registration of the domain (you can find out from the Whois report).  Thirdly, the results should be untouchable, that is, if the player notices the traces of editing (yesterday “did not go”, and the next day “passed”), then trust the service should not be.
• Contact Information. These are all possible channels of communication with the analytical service, from e-mail and the “Hot” telephone line to Skype, Viber, Telegram and other messengers.  It is optimal that the predictive service is present in social networks, and links go directly from the site.
• Absence of distracting information. All sorts of half-dressed young ladies, expensive cars and other “tinsel” only distracts the player and does not allow him to concentrate on assessing the effectiveness of the forecaster.
• Ways to pay for the subscription and the test period. Any self-respecting analyst will offer the player some free option for personal evaluation of the effectiveness of the service. As for payment, the more ways – the more reliable the service.

Important! The number of scammers in the sports forecasting market is high.  You can’t lose your vigilance and subscribe to the first office that came to you, especially if it is recommended by a person unfamiliar to the player.

Pay or not?

All variety of sports analytics services can be divided into 2 groups:

• Paid services, which send out forecasts on the fact of subscription.
• Free services that put information into open access.

It is quite natural that a player can think about why pay for predictions of bets, if there is a possibility to use the free option. However, he should think: why is literally “titanic” work laid out in general access, and what can be behind it? And in most cases, the answer is low passability of free forecasts, but with some reservations.

Some analytical services that work by subscription, using free forecasts attract new customers.  The value of a free forecast for a professional is not high, but it will allow to evaluate the efficiency of the algorithm or the forecaster, which will spodvignet him to subscribe.

In the rest – completely free forecasts are similar to “cheese in a mousetrap. ” That is, sort of as it is, it seems like how you can use it, but nobody answers for the consequences.

And the last argument in favor of paid forecasts can serve as a trivial “any work should be paid. ” A professional (that statistician, that a mathematician) does not work for a penny, and this must be understood.  Of course, everyone has different appetites, but the fact of a higher throughput of the paid forecast will be “evident”.

Useful advice

Finally, having determined for itself an analytical service, the player will have to show some caution here.  The rules of conduct here are simple, but they are relevant both for experienced players and for beginners in bets.

• Forecasts for bets from a service unfamiliar to the player must be carefully checked. There is always a possibility that it will not pass, therefore it will be necessary to spend several minutes on a personal assessment of its patency.
• You can’t put all the bank immediately according to the forecast from the service, with which the player has not yet worked. And the whole bank can’t be risked even after a long acquaintance with the forecaster.
• One should not succumb to excitement and emotions. Especially to unjustified actions fans of some clubs are inclined. And they need to keep in mind – no forecast, no bet, no bookmaker will not affect the course of the game.  If the player can’t bet on the rival of his favorite team, then he will either have to look for another sport, or no longer play sports bets.
• Do not put a large amount on an unfamiliar, or a new team, statistics on which there is not, or not enough to effectively assess the likely outcome of a sporting event.

Remember that even the best sports forecasts can’t claim absolute certainty.  And in accordance with this, make your bets, gentlemen.