How to Find the Break-even Point in Bets on Sports?

The concept of break-even point is best known to those who studied statistics, mathematics or economics. In fact, “breakeven” as the term pursues us all my life. However, the concept of break-even exists in sports bets.

What is the break-even point?

This concept is most relevant for those players who have just entered the path of betting. Their main task is to balance on the break-even point, at least not to go into negative. Such an achievement in itself becomes progress.

If the player balances on the break-even point, then he plays zero. This means that by the sum of wins and losses of all bets, he plays to zero, i.e. his bank remains stable and does not move. Of course, you do not have to wait for balancing on the breakeven point, but the bettor does not lose money, which is also a good result. If the player learns to do this, then another stage of development with a different level of income is waiting for him.

The statistics on the break-even point are disappointing. Only 3% of bettors able to play so as not to be in the red. Of these, the elite of betting is formed. With such a game, you can’t put yourself at a loss or expect to 50 to 50% of the outcome. Bets must necessarily be winning in order to cover the margin – the income that the bookmaker raises from the stakes. Such art is only possible for experienced players.

Do not forget that the margin in most shops is 9-10%, and can reach up to 15%. Only in very rare shops and on the stock exchange you can find a small margin of 0.1-0.2%. Thus, you will have to give these percentages to the bookmaker, and for this you need to guess correctly at least 55-60% of the events. This figure is very significant.

So, only the master bettor, who knows the sport analysis well, who can predict the events in the right direction at least 55-60%, can reach the breakeven point. If the player wins on the indicated 55-60%, then he expects profit. If he methodically loses, no strategy will help, as he will still slowly approach the minus.

Strategies related to the break-even point

Most players are of the opinion that, first of all, the chosen strategy affects the break-even point. Basically, these are bets with constant amounts or a percentage of the bank. Since sports bets have long ceased to be just entertainment and turned into a way of earning, each player seeks to follow his strategy, more or less true, allowing him to avoid the minus and stay on the break-even point. Bettors admit that the most beneficial strategy in this respect is still flat. To see this, let’s try an experiment on the example of equiprobable events with a coefficient of 1.9, which is the most common in bookmakers for events of this kind.

So, let’s look at how you can achieve break-even points on the example of the flat strategy and the Kelly criterion, which is a bet equal to the percentage of the bank. The size of the amount of the bank is defined as 1000 dollars. With the strategy of flat we use a bet of $50. With the game based on Kelly’s criterion, take a bet of 5% of the pot.

As a result, we get quite interesting conclusions. The allegations that, with the flat strategy, the break-even point is achieved most quickly, there really are grounds for it. If we use Kelly’s criterion, then if we guess 54% of equiprobable events, a breakeven point sets in. In the strategy of flat enough to guess 52% of the events. Thus, flat is really a strategy in which you can reach the break-even point in the shortest possible way. However, these arguments apply only to a short game.

With a long period of time, an even more interesting regularity is revealed. So, when guessing 59% of events with the same interest bet and coefficients for the Kelly Criterion, we get much more profit than we could get with a flat. Even more noticeable is the difference, if 65% of events are guessed. In this case, flat can only get 17-18% profit, because it increases linearly due to the constant rate. When using Kelly’s criterion, we get almost 90% of the bank’s amount.

Losses in using these two strategies are also significantly different. So, if you guess only 30% of the events with Kelly’s criterion, the losses will be 90% of the bank’s amount, while in flat you will need to invest 215%. And this is a significant difference.

Conclusions

So, as can be seen from the examples given, reaching a breakeven point is a very difficult matter, which only experienced players with good experience and calculating mind can do. At the same time, Kelly’s criterion is more suitable for professionals. Also he works at long-term rates. If you are a beginner and still do not understand the strategies, it’s better to use the flat strategy. In this case, we observe a fixed rate, with which it is much easier to operate.

As we have seen from an example, in a short-term game, it’s best to use a flat strategy: it gives more profit and less risk in this case. If you decide to play for a long period, then in this case you will help Kelly’s criterion, which allows you to bet, which depends on the percentage of the bank. Studies have shown that when Kelly’s criterion is applied for a long period of play, the profit considerably exceeds the proceeds when using the flat strategy.

What strategy to use, each bettor chooses himself. If you feel that you are well versed in Kelly’s criterion, even playing only recently, then act within the framework of this strategy. However, if you just came to Betting, and everything is new for you, try flat: it’s easier to deal with this strategy, and there is more guarantee that you will still receive a profit. Remember: with any strategy, the main thing is a cold mind and accurate calculation.