How to Use Bookmakers’ Underestimation of Odds in the Event Outcome?

In the world of sports betting in recent years, the most successful is considered Value betting, based on finding undervalued and overvalued teams coefficients in the line of bookmakers.

The principle of the bookmaker line

To understand how Value Betting works and how good this strategy is, you need to understand how the line of betting shops is built and what the coefficients in it actually reflect.

The coefficients in the bookmaker’s office are a mathematical reflection of the probability of some outcome. Translate the coefficient to the percentage probability is simple. It is necessary to divide 100% by a factor. For example, quotation 2.0 is 50% probability in ideal conditions. But the bookmaker also puts a margin in the formula. That is why in the BS line on bilateral equiprobable outcomes there are coefficients 1. 9-1.9, and even 1.8-1.8, but not 2.0-2.0, as it should be in purely mathematical format for equal probabilities.

Coefficients appear in the line as a result of complex calculations.

The computer calculates the probability of an event taking into account various factors, primarily statistics. These factors in football can be the number of goals, shots on goal, fouls in past matches. It takes into account the weather factor, the home field, and the intended goalkeeper rankings transmittance, etc.

Above the development of the algorithm, there are entire departments of statisticians, analysts, mathematicians and programmers, therefore only the richest bookmaker brands can afford to make their own production line. Most bookmaker brands use the purchase line, adjusting it to their needs.

How does the value betting strategy work?

The strategy of Value Betting is based on the fact that in the line of bookmaker offices errors are found – overvalued teams and overvalued coefficients. How to understand that the coefficient is too high? There are two ways – to calculate the probability of an outcome by own algorithm or to find the overestimated quotation at comparison of lines of bookmaker offices.

The first way is to create your own line for the chosen match. The goal is to evaluate the match more accurately than the bookmaker.

One person can’t do this. To deal with such things can only large syndicates of analysts. There are not more than a dozen of them in the world, and they are mainly engaged in drafting vip-recommendations for bets on the Asian market. The most famous example is the company Starlizzard of Tony Bloom, owner of the football club “Brighton”.

The average person still has a second option – to compare coefficients in different BSs and to find there overvalued probabilities with significant discrepancies. The essence of the Value betting system is to bet only those coefficients that the bettor recognizes as overvalued, and the probabilities are overestimated.

In this case, you can determine them both through experience and intuition in finding really inflated quotes, and with the help of aggregators of bookmaker office coefficients – simple programs compiled by programmers to order.

Ideally, the Value betting system is suitable for online markets (little-known and unpopular championships), where bookmakers often quote quotes on a template, giving these matches in line exclusively for geographical diversity. The problem of betting on such matches is that the bookmaker places a low limit on bets, and those players who often play on the conditional amateur leagues of Australia, the lower divisions of Latvia and the junior championships calculate and try to get rid of them in every possible way. In the course are blocking, endless verification of the personality and cutting of quotations.

Therefore, it’s worth playing in those offices that are loyal to “plus” clients, value their reputation and authority and able to provide fair conditions for the game.