Over/Under Betting Explained – How to Earn Money at this Kind of Gambling

Numerous bettors look for markets that will be much more profitable than usual 1X2 betting is where a lack of points or a last minute goal influencing a final result can become a reason of loss even if you use a maximally effective strategy. With this, Over/Under betting is a good alternative here. That is why all the punters should familiarize themselves with general principles of this betting variation.

In comparison with other kinds of sport, football does not imply a great amount of goals, which makes short tournaments and play-offs rather unpredictable. Thus, key indicators of teams` actual performance are represented by results within their national leagues.

When it comes to placing wagers, both bookmakers and gamblers consider an average amount of goals scored by a certain team per match. This information is necessary to more carefully estimate Over/Under odds offered. Even beginner betters should understand that if, for instance, Bookmaker A offers the odds of 1.9 on Over 2.5 goals, and Bookmaker B offers those of 1.9 on the same market, it will be much profitable to deal with the first one. However, prior to placing any wager, you should understand whether there is any need to risk your money with this option. Thus, Over/Under betting can be divided into three aspects.

Average Amount of Goals per Game

In fact, an average amount is different both for various teams and for various national leagues. For example, Philippine teams score more than five goals per game, while representatives of Spain`s Tercera Division manage to score about 1.7 goals within a single match. So, you see that the figures can be quite different. As for top European leagues, an average amount of goals is estimated as 3.2 for Serie A, 2.8 for La Liga, and 2.4 for Premier League.

Together with an average amount of goals per match for league, it is quite reasonable to know an average amount of goals scored by each of two opposing teams. In this case, you will have the most careful concept of possible results.

Probability Estimation

Since goals are accidental according to their nature, professional statisticians can use a Poisson distribution as a simple predictive model for placing Over/Under wagers. In practice, John Haigh created a special table with probabilities for teams to score 0, 1, 2, or more goals in accordance with an average amount of goals scored by the given team per match.

Given the table, it is quite easy to determine the probability of an Under 2.5 bet on teams, one of which (Team A) scores 1.2 goals on average, while the other one (Team B) scores 0.8. Then, you should understand that an Under 2.5 bet is said to be successful only if a game ends in a limited number of scores. To be more exact, they are 0:0, 0:1, 1:0, 1:1, 1:2, and 2:1. Since we have probabilities for each team to score null, one or two goals, we can calculate a probability of every correct score.

Let us consider an actual example in order to better understand how it works. Chances of home Team A to score amount to 36%, while those of Team B playing away not to score any goals are 45%. If we multiply these figures, we will obtain the probability that the match will end in 1:0, which will amount to 16.2%. Thus, having calculated probabilities for all the correct scores and added them, we will obtain a probability for an Under 2.5 bet to generate any returns. As for this case, the given probability is estimated as 67.6%.

Identification of Profitable Odds

Now, as soon as you determined a statistical probability of the teams to score less than 2.5 goals, the only thing for you to do is to find advantageous odds. For this, you can apply a simple formula:

Decimal Odds = 100/probability

Considering the above example, the decimal odds amount to 100/67.6 = 1.48.

It means that you should place an Under 2.5 bet only in a case if a bookmaker offers the odds of higher than 1.48 on it. However, you should understand that the given formula does not guarantee that you will obligatory obtain any returns. On the other hand, the given strategy will allow you placing wagers with positive expected value. Thanks to it, you will be able to obtain long-term profits exceeding your possible losses.