Speed of Coefficients Change on Various Markets

Beginners to master sports betting bets are often faced with an incomprehensible situation: the odds put out for a couple of days before the start of a sports event by the bookmaker suddenly “skyrocket”, or vice versa – “rushing into the abyss”, making the win at the bet almost negative.  So, to ensure victory over bookmaker, you need to understand what happens with the coefficients and how you can play it.

What are the markets?

Before proceeding to an understanding of the dynamics of coefficient changes, it is necessary to understand the terminology, as well as the factors that affect the initial “balance”.  Therefore, for the sake of simplicity of understanding, let us turn immediately to professional terminology, and first of all we shall consider the notion of “market”.

Under the markets in sports betting is understood the list of outcomes for this or that sport event.  In other words, the wider the painting is presented by the bookmaker, the more markets “open” for the player.  And the markets can be both basic and secondary.

Some players separate the market giving summary and additional options of outcomes related to painting. Actually any option of exodus

As an example, it is necessary to bring the tennis match Andreozzi-Martin in the line of the bookmaker office “Fonbet”.  Prior to the start of the sporting event, markets were opened:

• win 1 and 2 players;
• handicap 1 and 2;
• Total Over and Under;
• 1 set 1 and 2.

But, if you consider a tennis match in live all at the same bookmaker, you can see a much larger number of markets:

• games (who will win);
• betting on the game;
• score in the game;
• points in the game.

The player should understand that depending on the sport, the BS markets offered differ.  For example, in the mural of a football match, several dozen markets can be opened.

How is the market factor calculated?

When announcing a sports event, it is included in the line of the bookmaker’s office.  Accordingly, the initial coefficient for the outcome of a sport event must be set by the BS, and here the player should understand, on the basis of which he is calculated:

• on the basis of the conclusion of the own / external statistical or analytical bureau of sports analytics;
• based on the lines of other BSs.

The rules of calculating the initical odds are the same that are used in the formation of forecasts by analytical services or even by their players.

In essence, if the initial coefficients are honestly calculated, and not copied from another bookmaker, they are just waiting for the most likely outcome of the match.  In this case, the BS at the time of the initial coefficients does not take into account (but predicts) the saturation of the market with the money of players who will bet.  This is often used by small bookmakers, offering not real odds on the markets that need to be filled with money whatever the outcome of the match.

What affects the change of coefficients in dynamics?

Since the opening of the market, the initially announced coefficients begin to change due to natural causes.  To understand the dynamics of the process, one must understand what exactly affects the growth or decrease, and what factors can be neglected.

• The pressure of the money supply on a particular outcome. In accordance with market mechanisms, coefficients will grow and fall just under the pressure of players’ bets. Quite often there are situations when players literally push the BS line, which leads to the “top” of the outsider.  And by the time the match begins, it happens that despite the rightness of analysts, the loser of the sports team has the lowest coefficient.  Most often it occurs on major international and continental sports events.
• The receipt of updated data on athletes taking part in a sports match. A vivid example – the coefficients for Omsk HC “Avangard” changed after the publication of information about the rupture of ligaments in the forward of the team V. Pianov.
• Artificial movement of one of the shoulders of the line during the transfer of some other. Here, BS already acts as a kind of “regulator”, working with coefficients, since unexpected arrival of the loaded shoulder is connected with the risk of financial losses of the bookmaker. It should be remembered that the main income of the bookmaker is not so much connected with losing as with the margin, and ensuring a uniform line loading (that is, the maximum number of markets in the list) in the interests of the BS.

The marker can be forbidden by the bookmaker in the event, if the match is suspected in the contract of the provision. Consumer bets on this output are considered by bookmakers separately.

A negligible effect on the distribution of the coefficients and their variation is played by the significance of the sporting event.  To some extent, it only determines the initial “alignment of forces”, but over time, the situation will change in accordance with the general rules of the markets.

Rate of change of coefficients

Speaking about the dynamics of changes in the BS coefficients set, it will be incorrect to consider live betting because the process itself is agitated.  In the big role plays not only the type of event and, accordingly, the number of players making bets, but also the lightness of the bookmaker himself.  Therefore, the bet of change is better to be considered at the bets for pre-match.

If you look at the graph of the change in the market, you can see the fluctuations slightly resembling the wave of waves.  That is, the coefficients vary wavy, with “peaks” almost always in the middle-end of the hour, which is connected with the connection of new players to the bets for a sporting event.

Professional players make bets for few minutes after the pick of the growth, so likeproviding the maximum possible profit from the late bet with significant loss of fixed shares.

The speed itself, regardless of the markets, is gradually increasing as the match begins.  So, if a day before the GAIS-Vasalund meeting, the odds for the market Over 3. 5 were 1. 8, then by the time the match began, it had risen to 2. 07.

Looking at the chart on the market you can see the “threshold” points:

• smooth change from the moment of announcement (inclusion in the line) up to 3 days before the match;
• amplification of dynamics in the interval from 3 to 1 day;
• strong fluctuations within 24-12 hours before the event;
• the amplifying amplitude in the last hours.

IMPORTANT! FOR 1 HOUR BEFORE THE SPORT EVENT BEGINS, THE SENSE HAS MADE ONLY ON THE “JUMPED” UP OF THE COEFFICIENT OR ANYONE TO REFRAIN FROM THE BETS AGAIN.  WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES OF bet FOR THE PREMATCH CAN GO ON THE LOWER bet, AS THE MARKET IS CHANGED UNDER THE PRESSURE OF THE BETS OF THE NOT PROFESSIONAL PLAYERS.

Why should player understand the speed of change of odds?

Considering the bookmaker line in the dynamics, the player should understand why to deal with this.  And the argument in favor of studying theory and its own set of statistics is quite simple: money.  As in any market, in sports betting only money is “managed by the ball”.  So you do not just make the right bet, but also do it on time.  If you consider the above version of the bet on the pre-match GAIS – Vasalund, then at a bet of 100 USD for 3 days before the event, you could count only 80 USD of profit (including the BS margin), then at a bet of 12 hours before the event, you could get already 207 USD.  The difference is 27 USD, which is more than 25% of the initial bet.

Working in a particular market, it should be remembered that in some sports you should avoid making a bet 10 minutes before the start of the event.  For example, in horse racing, fluctuations before the start can be over 100%.