Sports Bets: Information for Successful Betting Start

Beginning players are confident in the existence of some specific secrets, knowledge of which will win the victory in the game with the bookmaker.  But, if you look at the success story of any professional and successful player, it becomes clear: “only secret” can be considered only the desire to learn, the ability to analyze and inept performance.  And then sports bets are predicted to be not an additional source of income, but the main earnings.  But, it’s only when you use your own unique game strategy that is competently made up.  But before the player must. . . . .

Determinate size of initial bank and bet amount

First of all, the player will have to decide on the amount of the bank, that is, with the amount of money that he “does not mind” spending on the game.  And here there are 2 important points.

• Even a complete loss of the bank should not cause serious (or even tangible) damage to the personal and / or family budget.
• Too small a bank volume excludes the real possibility of earning at sports betting.

Let us first consider the first moment.  If the loss, for example, 10 000 dollars tangibly affect the comfortable life of the player and his family, then such a bank in principle can’t be considered a worker. Most calculate the initial volume as the daily average costs, multiplied by 10.

As for the too small volume of the bank, then with an amount of 500 dollars.  on hands to communicate with bets it does not make sense. The only thing a player can get with such a bank is moral satisfaction from victory.  Serious win will not happen, because the entire bank can’t be considered as a single bet.  The player must understand – not all bets “play”, and the probability of loss is always there.  Accordingly, the entire bank can’t be risked.

A good illustration of an unjustified risk is the game “Manchester United” against “Huddersfield Town”, which took place on October 21, 2017.  Forecasts of analysts, expectations of bookmakers and fans were in favor of Manchester United.  But, what was the surprise, when in just half an hour the first ball rolled into the right corner of the team gate from Stratford.  At the 33 minute of the game followed another goal, the score was unthinkable 2: 0.  Only in the 78th minute of the match Manchester was able to “soak” the score, but did not manage to play back the players.  The result of the meeting was 2: 1 in favor of Huddersfield Town.

If the player ventured to place the entire bank on Manchester United, then he would have expected a natural loss.  This explains the need for a correct calculation of the volume of the bet, which is easy to do by resorting to Kelly’s formula.  It can be expressed as the difference between the private expected profit in relation to the loss, and the private expected profit, and the claimed coefficient.  The resulting number is a coefficient that is multiplied by the amount of the bank.

For example, a player makes sports bets on predictions with a permeability of 70% per event, the BS coefficient for which is defined as 1. 8.  At the same time, he is ready to risk up to 25% of the bank.  We consider:

(1. 8 / (1. 7 * 0. 25)) – (1. 8 / 0. 7) = 7. 7

That is, the optimal amount of the bet for the declared event will be 7. 7% of the bank’s amount.  But, each time to make calculations on the given parameters it will be inconvenient.  Therefore, the minimum acceptable BS coefficient is taken, the minimum bet is calculated, and work is already done with it.  In this case, events are ignored, according to which the expected profit will be below the allowable one.

Choose a game strategy

Having received the definition of the limit amount of the amount, which you can take risks, you must choose the appropriate strategy.  It should correspond to:

• minimal risk of loss;
• providing tangible income at medium or long distances;
• the minimum number of transactions.

More often than not, beginning players try to “get a hand” on a game with minimal odds.  They believe that the bookmaker line will be a kind of guarantee of getting some income.  But, this model of behavior has hidden flaws, which it is difficult to estimate without proper experience.

The game on small odds assumes a small, but “stable” income.  It seems like there is no trick, and for a year of regular bets you can increase the bank to a large extent.  But, let’s consider this strategy on the example of a player who plays on odds 1. 04 – 1. 1.  At a bet of 1000 dollars, the income will be from 40 to 100 dollars.  It will take at least 20-25 games with guaranteed victory in order to simply “regain one’s own”.  But, we must not forget about the Theory of Probability and the Theory of Relativity.  In accordance with them, no outcome can last indefinitely, and each time the probability of winning will be reduced.  With this strategy, only 1 defeat leads to a significant minus, and in the long term literally “ruins” the player.

Vivid examples of unexpected defeats can be called the fateful match of tennis player M.  Seles, who received a knife in the back from a fan of S.  Graf.  Or the same example with Manchester United v. Huddersfield Town.  That is, neither the BS line nor the sports analyst can become a guarantee in the bets – the influence of random factors is too ambiguous here.

Of course, sports betting is projected to significantly increase the chances of winning over BS (and then to a certain extent).  That’s only the cost of a paid prognostic subscription and payment commission bookmaker will block the entire win.  And if you buy forecasts, then they are used in more advantageous combinations – corridors and arbs.

Understand the arbs and corridors

The fast turnover of the bank and the release of a stable plus is real even at an average distance.  Using corridors and arbs to do this, you can expect a significant increase in yields simply by playing 1 bet out of the perfect.  Without going deep into the details, you can express arb and corridor in the version when betting on the opposite outcomes of a sporting event on the maximum BS coefficients.

For example, consider a hockey match of the 2nd round of Group A between the teams of the United States and Russia in 2014.  On the ice came equal in strength and efficiency of the team, which caused a certain “fading” of the BS lines.  If you abandon the total and foresidered predictions, and put exclusively on the victory of a certain team, it is realistic to get some revenue.  And in this situation, the player puts on the victory of the Americans in one BS, and on the victory of the Russian team already with another bookmaker.  Accordingly, the profit will be obtained regardless of the outcome of the sporting event, as it will play at least 1 of the bet bets.  With a probability of 3 outcomes (a draw), you can find another BS, and form 3 arbs.  By the way, the match ended with the victory of hockey players from the United States with a score of 3: 2.

The arblift strategy has many nuances, than you can devote more than one material.  But, in short, then to play it you will need:

• arb scanner;
• sports forecasts (the emerging corridors are not always correct and do not necessarily guarantee profit);
• an experience.

In addition, arbs and corridors have all the characteristics of a professional game, which threatens with penalties from the BS towards the player.  For an aspiring player, until he has gained the experience necessary in the bets, one should not take corridor or arb strategy as the basis.  But, in principle, with proper work with forecasting services, you can systematically get a decent profit.

Understand how to correctly use sports forecasts

The novice should understand where the odds of the bookmakers are from the outcome of a particular sporting event.  The BS line reflects:

• conclusions made directly by the analysts of the office;
• expectations of players.

Does it happen that the expectations of the fans “outweigh” the analyst’s arguments? Virtually never, but are their confirmation, which is mathematically proven in the description of the Galton experiment about guessing the weight of a bull.

It is interesting! Sir F.  Galton, an outstanding statistician and experimenter, revealed the pattern of distribution of the average expectations of a group of people with the concentration of correct values ​​at the peak of the chart.  In the sports betting schedule, the BS line is presented with some correction for the opinion of the bookmaker experts.

And this is what allows the bets to “play”.  After all, the bookmaker is with the player in almost equal conditions, and can’t accurately know the outcome of the sporting event.  Both use the works of analysts, and here begins the most interesting.

The use of forecasts ensures a stable long-distance profit, provided that the forecasts are predictable in more than 55 cases out of 100 (that is, 55%).  Making sports betting is predicted to be understood that:

• not all forecasts are reliable;
• the distribution of the series of past and non-concluded analytical services is affected by the mathematical variance;
• The theory of probability excludes the chance of playing all the perfect bets.

Proceeding from this, it is easy to understand that the sports forecast will work only if the influence of external and unaccounted factors does not outweigh the conclusions of the analytical algorithm.  Accordingly, the probability of loss is always, but unlike the game at the minimum coefficients, the profit obtained will partially or completely overlap previous failures.

For example, consider a hockey match in the NHL between Nashville Predators and Chicago Bulls, which was held on November 29, 2017.  The forecast of the analytical algorithm is Under (5. 5).  Declared by bookmakers coefficient for a similar outcome 1. 94.  The actual outcome of the meeting is 3:2. The forecast passed, with a bet, for example, in the amount of 500 dollars.  the yield will be 470 dollars (a grand total of 970 dollars).

But this option is not the only one in terms of using the predictive service.  You can play on overvalued odds, which will give an additional yield.  In some cases, BS analysts are mistaken, or the fans in their weight break through the bookmaker line, which opens prospects for the player.

The value-betting tactic requires great care when evaluating a sporting event.  At the same time, there should be a forecast at hand, which will provide an advantage over the BS.  After all, according to the available analytical conclusions, one can speak of the appearance of a revalued coefficient.

For example, consider the handball game “Aalborg” – “Veszprem” in the Champions League EHF.  On the proposed outcome Under 55. 5 BS offered a coefficient of 1. 65, but one of the bookmakers suggested the same outcome for k = 2. 05.  It is he who will be “pampers”.

Important! Formally, there are no special signs of Value-betting here.  The example is given as an illustration to the tactics.

The secret of this strategy is precisely the use of the findings of sports analytics.  Making such sports betting is predicted to be possible for a higher profit than if you play on the principle of “one bookmaker”.

Another secret that professional players often use is intuition.  Over the years, the ability to analyze the upcoming bets “in the background” is acquired.  And for the word “intuition” is just hidden experience, multiplied by an excellent knowledge of sports disciplines.  And this is what helps to reduce the risk, even making sports betting predictions, regardless of the chosen strategy.

After all, if the “professional flair” suggests that the total handball game “Randers” – “Viborg” will be less than 48. 5, whatever analysts assume, it should not be bet on it.