Trading System against the Favorite in Football on Betting Exchange

Why is it preferable to trade against a favorite? Suppose you have a bank of $1000, and we want to bargain at the match Manchester United – Portsmouth. The current coefficient on MJ is 1. 33. We expect that it will drop to 1.31. We bet on MJ for 1.33 our $1000, and after a while we take the same $1000 for 1.31. By the way, if we take the same amount as they put, the profit is not guaranteed. In this case, we will receive $ 20 only if MJ wins. With a different outcome, we do not win anything and do not lose.

To get a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome of the match, you must take for 1.31 another $15 with a tail. These $15 and make up our guaranteed profit. And now let us imagine the opposite situation.

The coefficient on MJ dropped to 1.31, and we see that it has reached the lower limit and can grow by a couple of points. Accept for 1.31, but not $1000, and $3225. After a while we put the same 3225 for 1. 33. Our win at Manchester United will be $ 64.5. Avek plesir! The same two points difference, the same amount in the bank, and the winnings in 3. 2 times more.

If the quotations on the favorites fall slowly and only a couple of points (there are exceptions), then they rise sometimes with hurricane speed. Fresh examples: in the match Tottenham-Chelsea coefficient on Chelsea rose from 1.73 to 1.82, in the match Real-Celta from 1.41 to 1.48. At the same time, there were no unexpected changes in the compositions.

Such matches are a tasty morsel for trading, but they are not so easy to catch. With experience comes a flair for them, although it’s not just a flair. We have to watch the latest results of the teams, evaluate their form, check with the schedule of movement of coefficients in previous matches of this favorite with similar rivals.

The main thing is still the schedule archive.

If you are a beginner, then it’s better not to risk money at first, but to record cases of a sharp increase in the coefficients on them (at least 2-3 such cases will be mandatory in the days of football matches). Carefully analyze each such jump, try to understand what was the cause. And be sure to keep an archive of graphs. For example, if today the odds on Manchester United vs. Portsmouth hovered from 1. 33 to 1. 29, and in the next round MJ plays at home with a stronger team, then we have every reason to assume that the odds should be higher. After a while, try to forecast such markets.

After a couple of months of such training, you will learn how to recognize these matches, and the results will gradually improve.

The graphs on the sports exchange can be divided into four types:

• a substantially straight line parallel to the X axis
• the graph constantly climbs up or down
• sinewave
• stepped

Do not immediately go into the trade, if you just opened the market. Serious line movements form only serious money, so there is no special reason to rely on how the quotes moved at the time of its formation. The movement in the match day is usually more revealing.

Choose some interesting markets for yourself and watch the charts.

If a chart reminds you of the first type several hours before the game, it’s better to abandon the trade. At any time an irreversible jump can occur, most often small. But even a small shift in the undesirable side will lead to losses.

If you have a second type of chart, this is better. Any drop or take-off, with rare exceptions, has its limit. We must be able to wait for this limit. This is not so difficult, if you follow the dynamics of the prisoners betting on Lay and Back. For example, if the graph, while sinking all the time, reached the point where more Lay plays than Back is a serious indicator that the drop is likely to stop. In any case, it is much easier to learn how to recognize minima / maxima than to anticipate a trend in advance. If you see that the odds have reached a minimum (maximum), boldly do Lay (Back). In most cases, you will be able to make a return bet with benefits. In the worst case, which can’t be insured for sure, you will go to zero or with minimal loss. And with this game, do not try to get a big profit, play on the neighboring odds.

The most delicious are the markets, where the graph resembles a sinusoid, with peaks and depressions. The principle is the same as for monotone charts, only here it can be done several times and with a rather large difference in the coefficients. In the already mentioned Sunday’s Real-Celta match, the trend has changed four times: 1.41 – 1.47 – 1.42 – 1.48. Limit points here are more easily recognized than in monotonous graphs. More pronounced.

Quite often you can see an abrupt increase in the coefficient, which is often seen in football European competition. For example, the market on the guest favorite in the Champions League was 2.02. On the day of the match, there is information that the coach of the favorite team will rotate the team. The market reacts to this jerk first to 2.12, then up to 2.20 and the closing occurs at 2.32.