Understand the Numbers in Sports Betting

The odds are a numerical expression of the probability of the outcome of a sporting event, calculated taking into account the subjective opinion of the bookmaker. Odds indicate the chance that the event will end as specified in the rate.

Let us examine in more detail what the odds are in sports betting, and how some odds s differ from others.

What are odds?

The bookmaker odds are the bookmaker’s estimate of the probability of a given outcome, expressed in number. The odds are used in the calculations between the bookmaker and the player: it is from this indicator that the profit received by the better on the bet on the sports outcome depends.

How do bookmakers calculate odds?

In betting shops, the odds are formed taking into account two main criteria — the probability of a particular outcome and margin. The first factor is obvious: the odds s is inversely dependent on probability. The higher the chances of a given outcome, the lower the odds. Accordingly, high odds are always set for an outsider to win, a low for a favorite. The second criterion is the margin, or the percentage that the bookmaker takes from each bet.

For example, take the meeting of two equal rivals. The chances of winning each team (p) are equal — 50% to 50%, or 0.5. We consider the odds:

K = 1 / p = 1 / 0.5 = 2

Consequently, the odds for equiprobable events are equal to 2. The bookmaker adds a margin, say, 5%, lays it in both arms, and the probability is already 55%, or 0.55. Accordingly, the updated odds will be equal to:

K = 1 / 0.55 = 1.82.

Types of odds

Sports bets are accepted in almost every country. And everywhere there are nuances and features. There are three main types of odds — decimal, or European, fractional, or British, and American. Consider them in more detail.

Decimal odds

The decimal view is the main format for displaying odds in the largest bookmakers. It looks like 1.5, 2.6 and so on. This is the simplest odds for perception: to calculate the amount of the potential gain, multiply its value by the amount of the sports bet.

Fractional (British) Odds

England is the country where bookmakers first appeared. To this day, it is a trendsetter. The odds here have a fractional spelling. For example, if the first team leads in a sporting event, the odds for it may be 3/15. This means that by placing 15 dollars, the player will receive three dollars on top if the bet wins. Thus, 18 will come to his gaming account.

British odds are easily converted to the European format. By dividing the numerator by the denominator, we get a net profit. Add a unit — and get the European odds. Thus, the odds 3/15 in European writing will be equal to 1.2.

American odds

In the American odds, in contrast to the British and European fractions are not provided. It uses the signs “+” or ” -“. By sign, you can determine the leader of the match from the point of view of the bookmaker and calculate the approximate profit.

For example, odds of -500 means that in order to make a profit of $100, you must put five hundred. Such a bet is made on the favorite of the match. A bet with a plus is placed on an outsider, for example, +900 — a bet of one hundred dollars can bring nine hundred.

How to calculate the gain by odds?

The easiest way to calculate the winnings by the decimal odds are to multiply its value by the amount of the bet. For example, set $1,000 at a rate of 1.5. If you win, we get one and a half thousand.

In the British odds ah you need to keep track of the numerator and denominator. A factor of 3/10 means that when winning a bookmaker will pay three dollars for every ten dollars of bet.

In the US, you need to follow the sign, otherwise the odds s are similar to the British. +500 means that 500 dollars of profit will be paid for every hundred. -500 —you need to put five hundred to get a hundred.

Why it is important to monitor odds?

The odds in bookmakers are constantly changing. The chances of a team to win can change — for example, if one of the important players gets injured or disqualified. The number of bets plays an important role in changing the odds — if it exceeds a certain acceptable limit, the bookmaker can lower the quotes.

Tracking and analyzing odds will allow you to make better rates. Bookmakers can underestimate or overestimate the chances of teams to win, to exaggerate or overestimated odds. In some shops, the odds s may be much higher or lower than in others, because many professional players prefer to have accs in several BS.

How to count odds on bids?

Each bookmaker works for profit. Income is derived from the stakes that ordinary players make. The profit of the bookmaker does not depend on the number of lost bets, only on properly selected odds. Let us consider in more detail how to calculate the odds in the bookmaker.

Correct assessment of chances

The most important thing is the correct assessment of chances. There are no perfect equiprobable outcomes, one of the teams always has some advantage over the other. And the success of the bet depends on whether the player is able to determine this advantage.

To properly assess the odds, solid experience is required. It is necessary to study the statistics of the season and joint meetings, assess the motivation and level of training. The best option is to develop your own percentage scale, showing how each criterion affects the team’s chances of winning the match.

Types of odds and methods of calculation

There are several main types of factors. They differ in the way they are presented. The English odds are a simple fraction, the European one is a decimal fraction, the American odds works with positive and negative numbers.

English odds

Britain is the founder of world betting. The largest shops are registered here, the odds are calculated here, which will later be used by other bookmakers to calculate their own quotes.

English odds are presented in the form of a simple fraction — for example, 5/15. Putting 15 dollars, dollars, euros, pounds, etc. the player will receive a net profit of five dollars, dollars, etc. At a rate of $30, you can expect ten dollars of profit, etc.

European odds

The European odds are a decimal notation common to most players. To calculate the potential gain, multiply the value of the odds by the amount of the bet. For example, putting a thousand dollars at a factor of 1.5, you will receive a thousand and a half into the account. To calculate the net profit it is necessary to subtract the bet amount from the winnings — in our case the net profit will be five hundred dollars.

To calculate the chances of winning the team from the point of view of the bookmaker, you need to divide 1 by a factor and multiply the resulting value by 100. For example, 1 / 1.5 * 100 = 66 percent is the probability that our bet will win.

American odds

The American odds have a positive and negative value. A bet with a positive value is placed on the outsider of the match. A bet with a negative value is to win the favorite.

For example, a rate at odds of -1000 means that you need to put 1000 in order to get a net profit of $100. In other words, the rate is equal to the European odds 1.1.

A rate of +1000 means that every hundred put in will yield a thousand dollars in net profit.

What is the margin in betting shops?

Margin is the percentage laid by the betting shop in odds. This allows the shop to make a profit, regardless of the distribution of rates. The higher the margin, the higher the profit of BS.

Let’s take a closer look at what margin is in rates and how to calculate it.

Each player paid attention to the fact that events that would have been equally probable in a different situation, in the bookmaker’s shop have odds 1.85-1.95.

Consider an example. The bookmaker offers to bet on a tennis match. A draw is impossible here, the rivals are about equal. The odds are 50 * 50. We translate the probability of victory of each of them in the ratio: 100% / 50% = 2.

Further the bookmaker is connected and adds the percent. And we get the chances no longer 50 * 50, but, for example, 52 * 52. Accordingly, after dividing, we get the odds 1.92.

Margin is set at each shop individually. In some it does not exceed 2%, in others it reaches 10 and higher. It all depends on how much the bookmaker plans to earn, and how it relates to the drop in rates — most players prefer to play in shops with a small margin.

How to calculate bookmaker margin?

It is very easy to find out the margin that the betting shop lays in the odds. To do this, it is enough to know the formula.

Margin = (100 / K 1 + 100 / K2) – 100. This formula is suitable for two possible outcomes.

Margin = (100 / K 1 + 100 / K2 + 100 / K3) – 100 — the situation with three possible outcomes.

For example, let’s calculate the margin for a tennis match. Bets are divided into the victory of the first athlete and the victory of the second athlete. Home = 2.30, Away = 1.60. No draw in tennis.

Margin = (100 / 2.3) + (100 / 1.65) – 100 = 104.08 – 100 = 4.08. This is the margin that the bookmaker laid in these odds.

A similar calculation is carried out for a football match. There are three possible outcomes:

• Winning the first team Home with a factor of 1.5;
• Draw with a factor of 4.0;
• The victory of the second team Away with a factor of 2.6.

Calculate the margin by the formula:

Margin = (100 / 2.5 + 100 / 4.0 + 100 / 2.6) – 100 = 103.46 – 100 = 3.46 — the size of the margin that the bookmaker lays in the stakes.

In some cases, it is not possible to determine the margin in this way — for example, if a 100% favorite participates in a match and the bookmaker puts out two-digit odds for an outsider to win. In this case, the size of the odds are influenced not only by the chances of both teams to win and margin, but also the number of bets that are made to win a favorite and an outsider. The bookmaker can vary the odds to even out the statistics a little.

In most cases, the margin can be calculated, and further use this data when choosing a bookmaker for a bet. The lower the margin, the higher the ratio, and the greater the amount of potential profit at the correct rate. If you make bets rarely and gradually, this factor will not be important for you. However, if you plan to receive a stable income at the rates, in the long run (1000 rates or more) even half of the percentage will result in a substantial amount.