Useful Advice on How to Distinguish Professional Tipsters From Lucky Player

Fortunately for beginner gamblers, there are numerous tipsters that provide novice bettors with allegedly effective advice on what to place a wager on. Even if these services seem to be very attractive, their efficiency fails to be proved always. So, it is very important to distinguish professional tipsters from ordinary swindlers, and the given article is going to explain key moments here.

100% markets in the betting industry are usually governed by binominal distribution. In simple words, it means that both win and loss have approximately equal chances to happen. As a rule, such events have the odds of 2.00 or a bit smaller after bookmakers apply their betting edge. However, the betting industry offers also a wide range of events that are not close to even money, and it is these offers that make betting exciting and interesting. In this case, we can use such a phenomenon as the t-distribution and the t-test that is based on it. So, the article explains how to use these two phenomena in order to evaluate tipsters’ performance.

The Length of a Tipster’s Record

First of all, it is necessary to understand perfectly what the phenomena mentioned above are. So, the t-distribution is simply the normal distribution applied when there are more than 30 separate wagers. The t-test, in its turn, analyzes whether the probability that benefits from a certain number of wagers were caused by chance. The smaller the chance probability, the more likely it is that the success comes from tipsters’ skills or expertise. To put it simply, the t-test just compares the tipster’s benefits to theoretical expectation of profits caused by chance.

With this in mind, it is obvious that the longer the successful tipster’s record, the higher the probability that chance did not influence greatly this performance. In order to better understand it, let us consider the example of two tipsters showing a 130% return on investment. It seems that they are equally skillful, but looking at their record can be detrimental here. If we find out that the first tipster achieved this result after 10 bets and the second after 500, it will become evident that the second tipster has really professional skills, while the first tipsters’ performance is more likely to be under the influence of chance.

Long Odds vs. Short Odds

Although it is not clear for beginner gamblers, odds are also of key importance when evaluating tipsters’ performance. When we pause to think, it will become obvious that a 130% return is much more easy to achieve if a tipster bets with the odds of about 5.00 than with those of 1.25. There are no doubts that betting long odds is much riskier because the higher the odds, the lower the probability. So, if you see that a tipster has achieved a significant success from betting long odds, it is more likely that he is a very lucky man.

Conclusion

So, if you want to employ tipsters’ services, you should conduct a certain analysis. The main thing here is to distinguish professional and skillful tipsters from just lucky men, and tipsters’ record as well as betting odds can be quite useful to solve this issue.