Value Bets: Recognize Underestimation of Events

Most bettors chases the concrete predictions and win-win strategies and misses an important parameter of betting – the margin.

You can’t get an advantage over the bookmaker’s line without elementary mathematics. Even if the forecaster guesses 7 bets out of 10, but at the same time puts a coefficient of 1.5, then in the long run he will at best be around zero.

What is value of forecasts?

Inexperienced players often fall on the hook of the bookmaker when the “sweet” coefficient of 1.58 is given on the obvious favorite of the match, and on the outsider – around 6. 0. In the direction of losing a weak team for a decent coefficient of 2. 75 very few people will look.

Stereotype – the lower the odds, the higher the probability of its passing – the main reason for failures in sports betting. With proper analysis, any coefficients play.

Consider the qualification match of the World Cup 2018 between the national teams of Azerbaijan and Germany. The victory of the Germans was estimated by the quotation of 1. 10, on “Azerbaijan” they gave 26. 0. Lovers rushed to load on the negative handicap of Germany for the miserable 1. 40 – 1.60.

Only a professional could look towards the goal of Azerbaijan in the first half for a good 6. 35. Conclusion in favor of the bet could be made for several reasons. Azerbaijan is a team that suffices only for the first half and with their fans in the first stretch they will lay out, but surrender in the second, which actually happened.

This is the definition of value bets – see underestimation of events where it can’t see other players and analysts bookmakers. Even if you lose such a bet, the forecast would be justified, since it’s enough to guess 2 out of 10 outcomes at a distance to be in the black, betting on the coefficients around 7.

Where to take forecasts for sports?

If a person is ill with a mathematical analysis of probabilities, one will have to look for an analyst on verifiers. Find a bettor, which puts on the coefficients of the roll, you can study the payback of his betting on the distance.

As they say, you can see at once: the turnover of 1000 bets, a miserable ROI of 1-2% and an average coefficient in the region of 1. 4 – 1.5. Although someone is satisfied with such forecasters.

Professional players show more worthy indicators. The payback of each bet with an average coefficient of 1.9 should start at 5%. If the bettor shows stability when playing on underappreciated events, then it can be safely called a prowl forecaster.