What Does the Bookmaker Think About: Excerpts From Bookmaker` Life

It is considered that the probability of something is measured by numbers in the range from 0% to 100%.  Every sporting event is no exception.  Take, for example, football.  There are two teams that have the same strength, about which we do not know anything.  What is the probability that the first team will win? Approximately 33. 3%.  And the second? Also 33. 3%.  And a draw? All the same 33. 3%.  Why? The answer is simple: the only thing we know is that the teams that clashed in this difficult match are equal in strength.  It follows that the coefficients for the outcome of the sport event will be equal on either side.  So, what is this all about?

Who are the specialists of bookmakers?

Not everything is as simple as it seems.  Do not think that the analytical departments of bookmakers have fallen into a hibernation.  They work day and night, tirelessly, experiencing fate, interfering in the theory of probability, and making predictions.

The minimum that needs to be done to assess the probabilities of the outcome of a sporting event is the example of a football match.  So, let’s analyze:

• general statistics of the games of two teams, as well as game statistics with each other;
• lists of injured players;
• information regarding the interest of the whole team or one particular player;
• relations between players, between players and the coach, between players and fans;
• the situation regarding the withdrawal of players, the expectation of new players coming;
• specific goals for the current activity;
• conditions. Where will the game take place? Country, city, stadium, field, level of support and aggression of fans;
• the sincere disposition of the arbitrators. Loyalty of the judges assigned to this match;
• Weather conditions;
• Much, much, much more.

Where do the coefficients come from and what do they mean for a bookie?

So, as we have already said, the probability of something is measured by numbers in the range from 0% to 100% or from 0 to 1.  After carrying out the most complicated calculations, employees of the analytical department of the bookmaker office begin to sum up.  Each event is assigned a certain percentage of “sales”.  For example:

1. Team “A” will win with a probability of 40% or 0. 4.
2. There will be a draw -20% or. 2.
3. Team “B” will win – 10% or 0. 1.

Since we have only “1”, it is necessary to divide all this.  What happens?

1. If you decide to bet on the “A” command, the coefficient will be equal to 2. 5.
2. To draw – 5.
3. To win the team “B” – 10.

We obtained coefficients that equalize the chances of the outcomes of events.  What does it mean? If the work of the analytical department did not give a slip, then the bookmaker does not care what outcome the players prefer to bet on.  Why? If many matches with similar odds are played, we get the following (suppose we have 10 matches with the same odds):

1. Team “A” will win only 4.
2. In 2 games there will be a draw
3. Team “B” is waiting for only one victory.

As a result, the gain according to the known laws of probability does not exceed the total amount of bets.

Why is the coefficient for the event changing closer to the beginning of the match?

People who are professionally engaged in the implementation of sports betting bets have probably watched the change in odds on the outcome, as time approached the beginning of the match.  Why? It happens that the amount bet on a certain outcome exceeds the permissible maximum – this is called a monetary bias in the line.  In connection with the fact that any bookmaker office does not intend to engage in charity, it needs to maintain a uniform distribution of bets.  Changing the coefficients, it entices players to bet on the desired outcome, and vice versa, do not bet on an unnecessary outcome.  Thus, the bookmaker always remains, as they say, “with their own”.

Can I win at the bookmaker?

Having available information, you can get the impression that you can’t beat the bookie.  This is not quite true.  In the bookmaker office, as in any other place, the same people work like you.  That is, they are also prone to make mistakes.  You can know more than they do, have the information they do not have, be lucky and smarter.  In this case, you are sure to succeed.  If you are thinking of starting professional sports betting, you need to understand that without knowledge, assiduity, luck and steel nerves, there’s nothing to do here.  If you, just love to experience fate, then good luck to you!