What is the Difference between Betting on Results and Total?

If you look closely at the bookmaker’s list of a variety of sports disciplines, it becomes clear that the vast majority of it concerns two areas: results and totals. The first involves victories, draws, combined options, various handicaps, outcomes in halves and other time periods. That is, not so much the score of the match is considered here, how much is the difference in goals, goals, points between rivals. The second operates with numerical indicators, the sum of these goals, goals and so on — these are totals in a variety of variations.

The place of other bets, one way or another not directly affecting the outcomes or totals, is only a tiny fraction of the line. Of course, the choice on what to bet on the outcome or the totals — this question is akin to clarify the primacy between the chicken and the egg, the other eternal dispute (Pepsi or CocaCola, Stallone or Schwarzenegger, “Wind” or “Apple” and stuff like that). Understanding the complexity and ambiguity of the dilemma, we take the liberty of raising this issue in this review.

So what is better to bet: on the result or on totals? Of course, do not expect a direct answer. We will describe each of the approaches, point out their advantages and disadvantages. We will leave the choice to you, since a certain taste is present here. As you know, there are no comrades for the taste and color. Some types of bets are easier and more effective for someone, and others are given to others.

As a basis for study and comparison, we take bets on football. Closer to the finish, let us apply the findings to the realities of other popular disciplines.

Bets on results

Perhaps the first thing a beginner faces in betting is predicting the winner of a match. Looking at the bookmaker, they see that in addition to the victory of the first team “Home”, as well as the second “Away”, there is also a draw “X”. That is, the main time of a football match can end with three options for the main result. Depending on the format of the tournament, this may be the end, or it may all go to extra time.

However, bets from the main line, on “Home — X — Away” are calculated exactly on the basis of the main time, plus minutes compensated by the arbiter. It is immediately possible to draw an intermediate conclusion that three results are more complicated than two.

Having delved deeper into the painting, the bettor finds out that a whole scattering of markets is responsible for the main results. Quite popular are the “double chances”, which are denoted by “1X”, “X2”, or “12”. A bet on 1X will win if the first team does not lose. That is, this condition of the bet will satisfy, and victory first, and a draw. With “X2” it’s the same, only a draw and a victory for the second team will work. A bet on “12”, or “without a draw”, will be winning if either side wins, but will lose if the score is equal.

Usually, “1X” and “X2” are used in practice as the most logical outcomes that are normally predicted and have a vector. But “12” is rarely used, because the uncertainty with the winner means that you can’t be sure that you won’t be a draw.

The conditions for the results are not limited to this set. There is still a wide range of handicaps. These are bets on the result of a match with some condition. It is written as a number with a minus or plus. The difference in the score, relative to the selected team, must be added to the numerical argument of the handicap, keeping the sign. If the result is a positive number, the player receives a win. If negative, the bet loses. If “0” comes out, then a return occurs.

So, negative odds are more stringent conditions than betting simply on victory. To win requires more and provide the required difference in the score. Plus handicaps, on the contrary, are located on the conditional line further than X 2, if we take the side of the second team. By and large, such a bet can win with all three results (Home, X, Away), only there is a limit on the difference in the score in favor of the first team. That is, it is a bet that there will not be defeat to a certain value of the goal difference.

A number of bets on the main outcomes of a match can be written as follows:

… Home (-2.5), Home (-2.25), Home (-2), Home (-1.75), Home (-1.5), Home (-1.25), Home (-1), Home (-0.75), Home, Home (-0.25), Home (0), 1 X, X

Accordingly, Home can be written as Home (-0.5), and X 2 as Away (+0.5). With Away, the minus row begins with respect to the second team.

Positive range:

X, Away (0), Away (+0.25), Away, Away (+0.75), Away (+1), Away (+1.25), Away (+1.5), Away (+1.75), Away (+2), Away (+2.25), Away (+2.5)…

Big variety. You can bet on wins, draws, double chances and a wide range of handicaps. That is, the risk of the bet is regulated very finely if desired or necessary. You can always increase the odds, at the cost of increasing risks. On the other hand, you can play it safe and take with a margin in the other direction, albeit at a lower bet.

The basic forecasting of football matches just aims to identify the strongest side, the difference in the chances of winning. From the main quotes on “Home — X — Away”, the odds on the other outcomes of this series are already put down. The forecasting of totals is built a little differently, but about it in its subsection.

When predicting the main outcomes, they evaluate: the motivation of each of the rivals, try to identify the difference in motivation. It happens that both teams are not seriously motivated, that is, we are talking about a friendly match, or about playing at the finish of the championship, when all the tasks have already been completed and no one needs points. Such games are generally not considered for betting; they are circumvented by the tenth road.

If there are motivations, and they are comparable, then the matches are considered suitable and proceed to comparison by other factors. If the motivations of opponents show a clear bias in one direction, corny, someone needs a victory here and now, then this is good soil for the starting vector of forecast.

After evaluating the motivation, they go on to compare the strengths of rivals. At this level, class and game form are compared. A class is a more global level that is related to the budget of the team, the cost of players, leadership tasks, ambitions in a tournament. Physical form is a more local, but also important factor. Teams of completely different classes can be either in good condition or in bad condition. This condition is not stable, in contrast to the average skill level.

Everyone experiences crises of different depths and periods of an ideal, ingenious game relative to their own average level. The tasks of the forecaster are to evaluate the totality of class and form. The forecast vector largely depends on this. Either go towards victories, minus odds of that team, which was considered a favorite, or move in the direction of not losing, plus odds, not such a hopeless underdog.

An essential factor for predicting the main outcomes is the composition of teams. If they are optimal, then conclusions on the strength of rivals remain in effect. But if someone’s composition has suffered losses, then they try to evaluate them, to predict how this will affect the main result.

Of great importance for the main outcomes is the factor of their field. At home, most teams are especially zealous not to lose, but away, as it happens. This does not apply to leaders who are set to 3 points in any game, and the factor of their field especially affects the average teams and outsiders.

The styles of the game of teams influence the choice according to the main outcome: a bias towards attack or defense, depending on the same factor of your field or away model, as well as on the strength of the opponent. Understanding how a coach will play against a particular opponent is a cool level that distinguishes professional analysts who delve into the details from amateurs.

The main result is also significantly affected by the density and complexity of the calendar, the schedule of past and future games. You can attach this factor either to the game form, or to the composition. A more difficult calendar reduces freshness, beats the very gaming conditions. So this can be taken into account at the stage of evaluating just the game form, as a component of strength before a specific match.

On the other hand, a busy schedule stimulates the trainer to rotate the composition. In a less important match, a mixed roster will be released, and in a more important match, an optimal one. The task of the forecaster is to capture this moment.

Betting on totals

The second large block of bets relates to amounts, total numerical indicators. In the case of football, these are goals. In the main painting, BSs offer Total Over and Under from a certain border value. The classic total is Total Under (2.5) and Total Over (2.5). Since the football game is not very productive, these outcomes will not always have close or even equal odds.

If the quotes are close on Total Under and Total Over from 2.5, the shop puts 1.95 to 1.95, which means that BS analysts regard the chances of 50 to 50. There may be a bias. If the probability of two or less goals is rated higher, then for Total Under (2.5) they can give 1.70, and for Total Over (2.5) the odds will be 2.30. If on the contrary, the probability of three or more goals is estimated higher, then the indicator on Total Over (2.5) will be lower, for example, 1.81, and on Total Under (2.5) — 2.13. If the imbalance in total 2.5 is even stronger, a different value can be taken to the main line: 3, 3.5, 2, 1.5.

In the additional list you can see the expanded block of markets for totals:

Total Over (0.5), Total Over (1), Total Over (1.5), Total Over (2), Total Over (2.5), Total Over (3), Total Over (3.5)…

… Total Under (4.5), Total Under (4), Total Under (3.5), Total Under (3), Total Under (2.5), Total Under (2), Total Under (1.5), Total Under (1)

In addition to such a breakdown, there are Asian fractional totals, whose value is a multiple of 0.25. There are exactly the same principles that we illustrated above, when we sorted out a number of odds.

In addition to the totals, there are blocks of bets on individual performance indicators: Individual Total Over and Individual Total Under.

There are also markets that beat the number of goals in a variety of ways:

• Gap: 0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 4 and more.
• The exact number of goals: 1, 2, 3, 4.
• Half-time totals.

Of the basic forecasting factors that we examined above, the most important for totals are:

• Game styles;
• The optimal composition of the lines (separate attack and separate defense).

As you can see, motivation, strength, calendar — all this from the first roles in predicting outcomes rolls back a bit to the background. Of course, motivation is needed. On a game in which no one needs to bet on totals is worth it, as well as on the result. They can also dry to the bottom, or they can arrange an extravaganza without feeling the burden of responsibility. Strength plays a role, but game styles prevail.

The difference in class and form can be so great that it will force the weaker opponent to sit back excessively, close, which will not contribute to the abundance of goals. And vice versa, opponents close in level can either get stuck in a fight and make a bottom, or climb on counter courses with “drafts bare”. In order to predict a particular scenario, it is necessary to accurately read exactly the playing styles, to understand what the coach will play against this or that opponent.

With the compositions, everything is relatively simple. If a team has a basic goalkeeper or a defending system-forming defender, then this is to the advantage of the total, both general and individual for the opponent. If, however, fell creative players and finisher, it is very likely to deal a blow to the impact, and we must look in the direction of Total Under or of IT the U.

Comparison of betting on outcomes and totals

The first and main difference between betting on results and totals is a different relationship with the motivation and strength of opponents. Betting on the main outcomes directly depends on the presence of a difference in motivation and/or strength of the parties. Betting on total, on the contrary, detaches the bettor from these factors, as well as from the main account itself. This feature can be a plus and a minus, depending on the situation, a particular match. The task of an experienced bettor is to navigate and choose the optimal type of bet.

Having found the difference in strength, reinforcing it with other factors, they usually bet on victory or another main outcome. Thus, the total number of goals goes by the wayside. If in the main outcome there is no crystal certainty, but there is a certain understanding of the playing styles and the distortions in the rosters, then you can consider either a total or an individual total. And then the player is absolutely not worried about the overall result.

Initially, the dispute between betting on the result and on the total begins with finding out that it is more likely not to lose any of the teams, or a goal on their part. And such reconciliation is carried out from two sides. At this stage, the fact clearly emerges that without goals there are no victories. So such an outcome as victory, minus odds, is directly tied to the individual total of the selected team. In turn, totals are formed from individual performance indicators. So, albeit not directly, but these two types of bets overlap.

The contradiction between the non-loss and the goal of the team runs through the score “0:0”. If we consider a double chance with this dry draw in a more likely scenario than just a goal from the team, ITO (0.5), then we should focus on 1X, zero or plus handicaps. However, with this fear about a goalless draw, somewhere on the periphery the bet on Total Under (2.5) or even Total Under (2) raises its head. So here, indirect links between the outcomes and the sum of goals can be traced. It turns out that these two largest directions in bets are not so antagonists, rather Siamese twins.

At a higher level of odds and risks, there is another well-known dilemma on what to bet: on the victory of a team or on its individual total is more than 1.5. Since victory is implied, then one ball from the team is considered a settled issue, but will there be 2 goals. If the 1:0 option is more likely — they choose victories, and ITO (1.5) is eliminated. If 2:2, 2:3 or the like obscurantism is perceived as more real than a minimal victory, then it is better to choose this ITO, untying yourself from the main result. If it is not possible to make an unambiguous choice, then simply divide the bet between victory or ITO (1.5).

Similarly, a choice is made between handicap (0) and ITO (1) when considering bets on the so-called hidden favorites. The match in quotes is equal, but the forecaster sees the advantage of one of the teams, which they use, flirting very safe, reinsured outcomes for solid odds.

It is impossible to complete the topic of comparing betting on outcomes and totals without mentioning the combined options in the bookmaker’s list. Many beginners like to increase the bet at with a total victory by combining totals more. It turns out the option: “Home + Total Over (2.5)” or “Away + Total Over (2.5)”. The problems with such bets are higher than the roof.

Firstly, there are several conditions at once, in fact, an accumulator within one match. Secondly, one of the elements is taken according to the residual principle, if only to increase the odds. As a result, at a distance the quote is still too low and not profitable. A fair number of matches still end with the scores 1:0, 2:0, or the favorite misfires and does not win.

There are other combinations:

• 1X + Total Over (2.5);
• 1X + Total Under (2.5);
• 1X + Total Under (3.5).

Also similar are available for X 2, for others Total Over and Total Under. There is at least a more reliable choice in terms of the main outcome, covering two out of three results. However, the conditions are still very many. Such bets, if used, are very precise. Usually in the line are a bunch of other, simpler and more reliable outcomes for the same odds.

Now let’s see how things are with the outcomes and totals in other popular sports.

Betting on the results and totals in hockey

Hockey is a more productive sport than football. The choice between betting on outcomes and totals is very much tied to the format of the tournament. When it comes to the regular season, especially the NHL, to a slightly lesser extent the KHL and various European leagues, it is better to look at totals. The distance is too great, which leads to a large scatter of results, a lot of sensations. Performance under such conditions is easier to predict, unlike outcomes.

In playoff games, the value of totals is somewhat sagging. The importance of fights is growing. There is no time for entertainment, the result is primary. In general, the playoffs are a difficult and dangerous stage for hockey competitions for betting. But here the bets on outcomes taking into account overtime definitely come to the fore.

You can bet on the main outcomes during regular championships. However, it is better to concentrate on plus handicaps. An attempt to systematically play favorites, especially with solid minus handicaps, is a losing topic at a distance. The reason is the underestimation of quotes on the favorites, which is observed in all sports.

Outcomes and totals in basketball

A sport like basketball is the most productive. Of course, on such large and fractional totals, in a huge range, there are places for bettors to take a walk. In this discipline, positive odds go well, if we take in terms of the main outcomes. One should also be careful with victories, especially if this is a dumb “analysis” of the line and betting on favorites. Working with hidden favorites is a completely different matter.

Still, basketball totals prevail, especially in the NBA regular season. There are too much sensations. Betting on the outcomes needs to be done precisely and preferably to look for chances on the side of outsiders.

Bets on outcomes or totals in tennis

A slightly different balance in tennis. The sums of games in this discipline are more dependent on the main result than is the case in the above sports. Total over on games comes in a tight fight, with a close score or exchange of sets. Total is considered less if they expect a dry victory in sets, with a wide margin. So in tennis, Total Under is very ideologically close to the minus handicap in games. There are nuances, but here everything dances from the outcome. So various handicaps prevail.

Сonclusions

It is impossible to unambiguously single out the advantage of betting on outcomes, or on totals. Choose your game models and hone their skills. By trial, you will find out which direction is closer to you.