What is More Important: Analytical or Statistical Analysis in Sports Forecasting?

Players are well aware of the “truer truth” of betting – bets made without a predictable outcome of the event and careful analysis will not lead to success.  However, not everyone can make a qualitative forecast, leading to profit.  As they say in similar situations: “Google is for help. ” In this case, it is not enough to “spank” the Internet in search of treasured predictions.  It is important to find a good analyst who knows his business.

How mathematical forecasts are provided?

Based on many years of experience in the field of betting, we can state that the most accurate predictions leading to a profitable bet are mathematical ones.  They are based on statistical data that can be combined into a mathematical formula, and a special program predicts the outcome of the event, will help the player to correctly evaluate the bookmaker’s odds.  Forecasts are made in several stages, for the study of which experience is required, the ability to think analytically, to compare events.

STAGE 1

Collect information related to the upcoming sporting event.  The analyst studies the data for both teams (players), selected:

• the number of goals scored (abandoned) in the goal (ring) when playing on their own field and the guest;
• fouls;
• cards for violation of the rules;
• delete;
• penalties;
• goal combinations and their implementation.

STAGE 2

Analysis of the collected material, separation of data into stimulating and disinhibitory factors of influence.  Naturally, missed goals, deletions, not bringing the scoring situation to the logical end, are disincentive.  Also an analysis of players’ qualifications is carried out, that is, what composition of the team will play.  Here, the main or additional players are claimed for the match (for team sports).

STAGE 3

Technical: carrying out calculations of the likely outcome of a match on the created mathematical models with the help of software.  If the forecaster has the appropriate education and knowledge of the methods of stochastic and regressive analysis or the Baezian method, then all of them are used for calculation.

STAGE 4

Analysis of the received data.  The statistics of teams and players, transformed into mathematical formulas, turns into totals, handicaps, outcomes of the game.  Received data, forecasters are reviewing for compliance with the upcoming match.

Interesting thing: mathematical forecasts which counted with a special program include algorithms from mathematics, statistics, theory of probability. If the speech is going on the real forecast that it should be difficulty in that sports which are forecasts and be a branch mathematics.

Evaluation of the results of mathematical forecast

On the example of the match between the clubs of the English Premier League Huddersfield (team 1) and Liverpool (team 2), consider the effectiveness of this calculation.  To compile the forecast, we used such data (we present it selectively):

• Place in the tournament: Huddersfield # 14, Liverpool # 4;
• Goals scored / missed: in 24 games played – Huddersfield 19/41, Liverpool 54/29;
• Liverpool defeated Huddersfield 3-0 in his field;
• in the previous 5 games for the team 1: winning – 1, losing – 3, draw – 1; team 2 – winning – 3, losing – 2;
• from 5 home games of team 1: loss – 2, draws – 3;
• from 5 guest matches of team 2: win – 3, loss – 1, draw – 1;
• The average number of goals scored by Huddersfield is 1, Liverpool – 2. 47.

Estimated data: probability of winning 1 – 14% (coefficient 7. 14), 2 – 61% (1. 64), X – 25% (4. 0); Under – 47%, Over – 53%; number of goals – 2. 63.

The data of the bookmaker offices: the outcome of the match is 1 – 9,14-11,0, Х – 4,96-5,5, 2 – 1,33-1,35, Over (2,5) – 1,73.  Conclusion: Analyzing the obtained indicators, we can say that the forecast is made accurately, reasoned and recommended for use.

Analytical data for forecast

Forecasts based primarily on not numerical data, but taking into account the physical and psychological shape of athletes, are called analytical.  Here, among other things, takes into account:

• the policy of coaches towards players;
• financial condition of the club;
• the microclimate in the team;
• Disqualification of leading players;
• the presence of injured.

The forecast is created in stages.  Special mathematical knowledge does not require, but without a deep “penetration into the subject” can’t do.  Making it, you need not only to know the rules of the game of a certain sport discipline, but also such facts as, for example, “cardiac” affairs of the players, whether athletes are resting enough.  So, NBA basketball players often spend time on the road, moving from town to town, from state to state, playing either every evening or every other day.  Such a lifestyle of athletes leads to health disorders and a decrease in the level of play.

The principle of composing statistical forecasts

1. Initially, information is collected. It is conducted using the previous games of the teams (approximately 5-7 matches). The calculation must include home and guest meetings; matches between opponents; location in the standings; the odds of goals scored and conceded goals.  In sports, motivation is of great importance, these are: qualifying rounds, final games of championships, international competitions, derby (when the victory is very important), rehabilitation before the fans and the financial component, after all.
2. At the second stage of the analysis, all collected information is divided into 3 types of factors: directly, indirectly affecting the outcome of the event and circumstances that can’t be foreseen.
3. The direct compilation of the forecast is the final stage of the analysis. Using the calculated indicators, the information is compared with the source and analyzes the possibility of applying to the upcoming event.

For example, a strong enough team in its field did not score a single goal for 4 rounds.  Although in general the statistics of goals scored at home is good.  Because, according to the theory of probability, the team is likely to score in the upcoming game.  What can lead not only to the effectiveness of the match, but also the victory of this team.

If you analyze the game of the team located in the middle of the standings and scoring goals in home games for several rounds in a row, then the situation will be reversed.  The same theory – reduces the percentage of probability of its victory.

The following examples clearly show that, having received such a “shaky” assumption, the player is worth thinking about how to make a bet. However, if the mathematical forecast has been admitted to the addition, the probability of the win is high.

Having carried out elementary analyzes, as far as possible in the review article, it is possible to say with certainty that bets without forecasts are a waste of money.  What kind of forecast is more important – the player chooses himself.  And the method of “trial and error” goes to the cherished goal.