Why are Paid Forecasting Services Seem Better Than They are?

On the Internet, you can find hundreds of players who prove how easy and simple you can make money in sports betting. But, if everything is so simple, then why in reality 9 out of 10 real players are in the red? Not everyone talks about it aloud, but you yourself know. . . Why is he acquainted with a paid service of forecasts with one person, and after a couple of months of cooperation you will learn all of its background and run, what are the forces?

Known Joseph Buhdal conducted a study of the results of more than a hundred tipsters and found out why people trust the winners, often ignoring common sense and logic.

To find the cappers with beautiful statistics it is enough to enter the corresponding query to the search engine, and you will find not one dozen offers to subscribe to paid mailing and earn without applying any effort to the process. On some sites you will even be convinced that 80 percent of bets are won, and it is impossible to lose.

Now stop. You did not catch yourself thinking that you can’t find the stories of those who failed in the role of a capper? And you will not find it. Because no one wants to share their losses and plums of banks. Such stories are easier to dig deep into, then make a new site, create a new name and start over. Just like in a computer game. You do not view the reliability of bets that appear in the statistics archive?

People just want to believe that it’s easy and simple to beat a bookmaker, you just do not have enough time, and the capper has his car. In fact, “on the other side” of the screen in 95 cases out of 100 is the same family man who has children, a wife, work and a computer connected to the Internet. It’s just a little more successful than you.

The lack of experience in mathematical prediction of the outcome of an event (and in most cases, the notion of this) among players is the main reason for bad bets. This is what the bookmaker earns. To get around the player must become a high-level analyst. Managing your funds is also important, but the errors here only increase losses, not being their true cause.

The most important quality of the player (capper) is a clearly constructed mathematical model, which makes it possible to determine the odds better than the bookmaker does. If you are advised to bet on the total, but they can’t prove a mathematical error in the bookmaker’s calculations – run away from such advice.

Before subscribing to the services of the capper, ask the question “do you know him from the bad side”? Because every medal ALWAYS has two sides. And this will be the second part of this article.
Miri Mella once introduced such a notion as a “survival trend”. Now we will consider what relation this term has to capper and sports betting.

What are the chances of the player to win in the bookmaker office?
Very indicative are the data received by the team from the Harvard Medical School. For the study was chosen a group of 40,000 players in one of the leading bookmakers.

This group has made 8 million bets for a total of 60 million euros. As a result of this segment, the loss amounted to 10 million euros (-17% ROI). Only 13% of the players were able to make a profit. And only 245 players were able to earn more than 1000 euros.

For the overwhelming players, a bet is a game at random. Chances are calculated in the head, by the eye and without the presence of any deep system. Often at the heart of everything sixth sense lies, enhanced by obtaining some kind of information about injuries. Even with statistical analysis, the player simply does not have enough time to study the detailed statistics of each match in order to evaluate the whole picture, rather than its small patch of 5-8 last matches, which found 10-15 minutes of surface analysis.

Meanwhile, the statistics above shows that the odds of an ordinary player in a bookmaker’s office (not serious enough) to be in the black after 200 bets are only 13%, and to win something or a significant 0.6%.

The winner creates a story

The psychology of people is that we diligently fail to notice those who lost, preferring to believe in those who achieved success. Failures sow doubt in us, such an experience is not pleasant. Therefore, it is easier for our brain to pay attention to successful ones and to evaluate them, rather than learn from the mistakes of those who have failed.

The main feature of sports betting is a high level of uncertainty.

What happens if you only take data from those who have succeeded in measuring the probability of success? We consider them professionals only because they won, but do not analyze due to what it happened. Lack of knowledge about the player’s professional skills makes us subjectively evaluate his experience. This is what makes us think that every winner is a high-level professional.

This is described very well in Michael Mobussin’s “The Equation of Success”:

You can’t link the forecast and the result, if the determining role in the victory was played by luck. In other words, we need to evaluate not the success of the player, but the logic of his prediction. Having done this, we will be able to understand if the system that brings success is durable. Attention to the result only radically changes our perception of the winning strategy and sooner or later leads to failure.

Why can’t you blindly trust the statistics?

The author of one good book – Joseph Buhdal – studied the strategy of the players for 10 years (from 2001 to 2011). During this time, the forecast of 120 paid forecast services was estimated. The whole history of their bets was studied and the results were very good.

ROI of these services on paper was 17. 4%. Incredibly good result!

In only the next 90 thousand forecasts, to which the researcher was signed as a client, pleased only 1% of the return on sales (ROI).

What is the reason for this regress in professional services? The problem is in the startup data. The author of the study was given the results of the bets of the plus players who are at the peak. When it turned out that the victories were due to a lucky combination of circumstances, rather than profound knowledge of the players, the minus capers simply leave the arena of action, and their negative statistics are not shown to future customers.

Alas, but this is how this business works. The only difference is how skillfully the owners of such businesses manipulate public opinion.

How to beat the bookmaker?

It is better to treat bets with the same seriousness as to the investment process. You will not go to the stock market without proper theoretical training? It’s absolutely the same here. You should understand all the risks and think remotely (for a year in advance a minimum). Here are a couple of major mistakes of investors who subscribe to paid mailings:

1. Everyone knows that it is necessary to invest during a crisis, but in betting everyone prefers to subscribe to a capper after he has made an incredible breakthrough. If you know the capers for many years and understand its game system, it may be worth subscribing when everything is bad and take part in the same snatch?
2. Another bad habit is to wait for the result in the first 2-3 months. In today’s realities, no self-respecting capper (if he’s not a fraudster and not looking for his first client) will not promise you a profit on a short distance. Any working strategy of bets gives the result only at a distance of 100-200 bets at a minimum.
3. But most often clients are killed by greed and inability to manage their finances. A professional chef always follows the proportions to make a delicious dish. In betting, many people do not care about the reliability of the betting strategy, and to think about distance is generally cosmos. Alas, but while you study the mathematical component of bets – you will lose, even getting good predictions from the keeper.

Here’s what to start with.

First, you must choose the right bookmaker. The company “Pinnacle” works with a minimum margin (2% on the top market).

This provides players with higher odds and gives more rights to error. Believe me, you still have to open an account here, when you’ll be tired of fighting with cutting maxima on gaming accounts.

Overview of the Pinnacle Sportsbook

Pinnacle seeks to increase the level of client literacy. Fresh articles on the theory of betting (the basis of this article is taken from there), in which the methods of forecasting, systems and strategies for increasing the number of victories are clearly and clearly explained, help the players succeed.

Secondly, if you want to live (or improve the quality of life) by using sports betting, take the time to approach the in-depth analysis. By betting on the peephole, not knowing the names of the players, the game characteristics of the teams – you can’t go far only on the average arithmetic. In today’s realities, you have to be an expert in your field to first find an error in the line and bet until someone else has collapsed the line and the coefficient to non-playable values.

Thirdly, you need to choose the right capper, if you are going to buy forecasts. You must clearly understand its strengths and weaknesses of its system. Avoid services that are concerned only with their statistics, or not with what odds and on which line the client has been able to take the bet. And remember the “survival trend”. . . If the keeper has beautiful statistics without successfully overcoming the black strip, then it will definitely have to be on you. It is the matter of time.