Why Distance is More Important Than ROI?

Some players use cappers recommendations when choosing options for betting. Unfortunately, it is difficult to determine when the achievements of the tipster are the result of effective forecasting with statistically significant indicators or a successful coincidence of circumstances. This article is devoted to assessing the achievements of the capper with the help of the so-called “survival trend”.

For example, during the last five years, a certain tipster guessed all the outcomes of tennis matches with equal chances of success – the total profit was $50000. Impressive, right? You imagine a real professional, but even a monkey can be in the place of the capper.

We will simulate the situation with 10 000 forecasters, who make predictions for tennis competitions and have an equal chance to win or lose 10 000 US dollars during the year. If the year is losing for the tipster, it is eliminated from the competition.

Cappers (or monkeys) make predictions by simply pressing one of two buttons. If the trial continues for one year, 5000 of our tipsters will make a profit of $10 000, and the other 5000 advisers will suffer losses and will not pass the test. At the end of the second year, 2500 monkeys could have achieved excellent results, and by the 5th year, 313 monkeys from the original group could have earned $50 000 as a result of consistent accurate forecasts, relying only on luck.

Do not confuse those who are just lucky with real experts.

This phenomenon is called the “survival trend”. It is of great importance in evaluating the activities of the tipsters. A successful better who ranks first in the ranking on the hottips.com website may actually be just lucky (remember the example of the monkey pressing a button).

What important factors influence this process? The size of the initial sample is extremely important. If you focus only on the results of the winners and do not notice the achievements of the other less successful participants, you are misled by random events. If a rather large sample is used at first, some participants will seem experienced by the selection experts, but in fact their success will be based on pure luck. This is an obvious fact.

Another crucial factor – the probability of an event. In our example, a symmetric coin flip is described (with an equal chance of heads or tails falling out), but in a real situation the advantage will be on the side of the bookmaker. The number of lucky winners decreases after re-testing with a higher margin. The lower the margin, the easier it is to achieve success in the long term.

A vivid example of the “survival trend”

There are many examples of using the “survival trend”. We will look at a special case that happened in 2008 in a program called The System. A participant in this program – the famous English illusionist Derren Brown – clearly demonstrated how the “survival trend” can be confusing.

The show was devoted to the development of a system that would allow to accurately determine the winner at the races. This idea would please typical players. The show was attended by a girl named Hadisha, whom Brown secretly sent five accurate forecasts regarding the winners of the races five times in a row. It was all fair. The forecasts were accurate and truthful, and the culmination of the program was the sixth final forecast. Hadisha made a bid in the amount of $4000 and lost, and the result was Brown’s win-win statistics.

Of course, in this case there was no system. In the case of Hadisha, a “survival trend” was used.

Initially, Brown’s sample size was 7776 people. It was a sufficient indicator. He broke them into six groups. For each group a horse was selected to take part in the races. It should be noted that the number of variable parameters has the same value as the number of predictions regarding the bet of decrease in the size of the initial sample.

After each race, 5 out of 6 participants lost and dropped out of the system (as in the example with monkeys who made the wrong choice). The remaining participants made the following selection in a random order. Hadisha was the last successful participant in the program, winning five times in a row.

The main lesson for the player who places bets on sporting events: luck can smile to everyone. The harder it is to achieve something, the greater the importance of luck. If one monkey manages to print the complete works of Shakespeare with a sample of several billion participants, this is not a reason for joy. If this result is achieved again, pay closer attention to this event.

A simple formula for evaluating the capacity

To estimate the skill level of the capper, it is necessary to extract the square root of the total number of predictions and add to the resulting value half of the total number of games.

√ˆš (number of predictions) + 0.5 (total number of games played)

For example, imagine the tipster has 400 predictions. Extract the square root of (20), divide 400 by 2 and add the resulting values. As a result, we get 220 possible winnings.

If the result is 220 forecasts, the excess of the average value is characterized by two standard deviations. The chance that a handicapper with 50% statistics will achieve this result is 1 to 40. Therefore, a player with 400 predictions needs to change the bet from 220 to 180 or from 60 to 40 out of 100 predictions to achieve the desired result.

You do not need to be an expert in mathematical statistics to understand the following pattern: the greater the number of forecasts available for viewing, the easier it is to assess the player’s capabilities. In most cases, it is safer to follow the example of a player with a lower percentage of winnings, if he participated in games much more often.