Why is it Important to Know About the Closing Line?

As you know, betting odds are a variable.  Quotations are constantly under the influence of many factors, such as news from the camp teams, player bets, changing weather conditions, etc.  Based on the dynamics of the line, a lot of betting strategies have been developed, including our “Closing Line” strategy.

The essence of the “Closing Line” strategy

If you bet on any market for a specific time before the event, then when the line is closed, there are three options:

• the coefficient will increase;
• the coefficient will decrease;
• the coefficient will remain unchanged.

The least chance is that the coefficient will not change, and raising or lowering it will happen with a high probability, only the player will be difficult to predict which way the line will move.  Nevertheless, you need to try to do this.

To do this, open any exchange of bets and see what amounts are bet on the market you want and the opposite outcome.  If the volume of bets on your market exceeds the chances of bookmakers, then the coefficient may go down.  In the opposite case, the coefficient will increase.

For example, in the game Germany-Finland the coefficient for Germany is 1. 18, which corresponds to the probability of winning 84. 7%.  At the same time, the amount of money for the victory of Germany is 96% of the total amount of bets on this market.  This suggests that the players underestimate Germany, which means that the coefficient for its victory is likely to increase.

You need to find a market where, most likely, there will be a drop in quotes, but for this you need to focus on the newsline.

Playing on the strategy, you can bet on any market, quotes for which are within 1. 50-3. 00.  The bet must be made no earlier than two days before the start of the event.

If by the time of closing the coefficient for this market has not changed or decreased, then we leave it as it is.  In the event that the coefficient has increased, it is necessary to make a reverse bet, which will somewhat reduce losses.

An example of a strategy game

• Take a hockey match KHL Lokomotiv Yaroslavl – Avangard Omsk. In this game, we’ll bet on Over 4. 00. Since it is necessary to make a bet on the maximum coefficient, use the services of comparing quotes.  In our case, we found the highest odds on the market in the office 12Bet.  We put $ 100 on Under 4. 00 with a coefficient of 2. 02.
• At the same time, the coefficient of Over 4. 00 in BS 188Bet is equal to 1. 94, which gives the margin equal to only 1. 05%. If the coefficient does not change before the end of the game, then we leave everything as is and lose at a bet of 1. 05 $ (in the long term).
• If the coefficients at the closing of the line have changed in the opposite direction (2. 02 to Over 4. 00 and 1. 94 to Under 4. 00), then nothing has happened either. Since the closing line is the most accurate, it means that we have a bet on the valuinal market with a yield of 1%.
• If there is a drawdown of the coefficient to Over 4. 00 and the quotes take the form 2. 10 on Under 4. 00 and 1. 87 on Over 4. 00, then in this case the possible profit (in our case $ 102) we will bet on Over 4. 00. If the game is Under 4. 00, then we return the money, if it passes Over 4. 00, then the loss will be 11. 26 $ or 5. 57% of the bet.

Conclusion

This is a rather insecure betting strategy, since it is difficult for a bettor to predict the movement of a line.  Its main plus is that if you lose, you will not lose the whole bet, but only a few percent of it, but the winnings will be small, so your bank will slowly increase or decrease.