Why not to Learn Betting Yourself?

Before you start, let’s say a few words about why free (as well as paid) other people’s forecasts from the Internet will not help you.

Firstly, the motivation of those who make the forecasts themselves is doubtful. Often these are famous football experts, commentators. The fact that they constantly participate in various advertisements and promotions from bookmakers should already be thought-provoking. These are ideal media horns in the hands of “beeches” to pump “hype” and hysteria around the most high-profile sports through them. Often their role is to lead the crowd to defeat in favor of the office. In any case, the impression is just that.

Secondly, you can look at the relevant resources statistics of these “experts” for a more or less long distance. So the understanding will come that they are all in the red and only a few hang around zero. So why take their forecasts, one asks?

Thirdly, there is no certainty that they put themselves according to their forecasts. And we know that responsibility in rates comes with money. It turns out that third-party forecasters only give assumptions, but they themselves do not. Thus, they substitute you.

Forecasters or cappers

Another category of free forecast generators is various “cappers”. In fact, these are “non-names”, whose achievements in betting are often fictitious. They themselves have proclaimed themselves “great gurus”. It is clear that the value of forecasts from such people is even lower than from television experts from the world of sports. The goal of the “cappers”, in the end, is to sell you already paid forecasts, or some kind of “win-win strategy”. Pure fraud.

In the bottom line, we have a disoriented average player who thinks that he transfers part of the responsibility to his uncle on the TV or on the YouTube channel. The right way is to make predictions yourself and set them. If you yourself predict this or that outcome in a match, then you understand what you proceed from and what should happen on the field. So you can draw the right conclusions if the bet wins or loses.

So you can insure yourself in live, after all. And when you use someone else’s forecast, you can’t do anything on your own, because you don’t know what the author of the forecast relied on. Even if some description was attached, then it is not worth a damn. You cannot weigh the factors you have only a vague idea of ​​yourself.

So stop trying to throw off the burden of responsibility for your bets on someone, on the “left uncle.” Learn to form a pool of your forecasts yourself. We help instruction. Of course, it is largely subjective, but let us be sure that this is better than the lack of a plan. Let’s get started.

All of the above does not exclude that working on the forecasts of others can be effective and profitable for the player, but this method of the game is a separate story that is not the topic of this article. The main thing is to choose from normal services and not be fooled by fraudulent schemes.

Primary dropouts

If you open some kind of statistical service, like MyScore, then every day you can see a lot of football matches. On weekends, there are especially a lot of them. In the middle of the week there are made tours, matches of Eurocups or domestic cups of the camp. In this variety, it’s not long to get lost and fall into bets on everything.

This must not be allowed. If you keep too many leagues and teams in sight, the quality of forecasts will be zero. You need to choose the most interesting championships and tournaments for them of all your diversity. Those that you like to watch, about the teams of which you know more.

Immediately a huge number of matches are screened out on the basis that you do not follow these leagues. In the corresponding Internet services, you can mark with an asterisk, highlight those competitions that are interesting to you. They will be displayed at the top of the list.

And in the direction of the rest of the games you do not even have to look. There would be to cope with those for which there is information. In those days when there are no matches in your leagues, just do other things, don’t look for “what to charge”. Violation of this simple rule leads to a drain of the bank. Tested by many who did not know or did not believe.

The primary screening of matches in “your” leagues is carried out on the principle of “5 seconds”. You look at pairs of teams in the matches of the upcoming tour. If in 5 seconds an idea appears, an understanding pops up about what kind of teams they are, how they play, what they strive for — then such a game can be checked and disassembled further.

If the pair, or one team from the pair is unknown, is not understood, plays unstably, or is it equal teams in strength, just by, go ahead. Here you are not fortunetelling. We need confident forecasts. Even with them misfires happen. So it is not necessary to aggravate and generate risks, going on notorious adventures.

Oddly enough, at this first stage, a lot of matches will fly away “into the urn”, over which “experts” and “cappers” usually break their spears. All kinds of matches between TOP clubs, derby, and other equal fights “on three outcomes” — everything is eliminated. Only those few matches remain, where something became clear to you in 5 seconds, a preliminary forecast loomed.

Use the privilege not to put where you are not sure. Nobody drives you, doesn’t force you to make pores on games in which you doubt. A bright sign in the face of equal strong teams is an occasion to watch good football. But, as a rule, this is extremely slippery ground for betting. Learn not to put where it is not appropriate.

Opponents status and strength

In the matches remaining after the initial screening, we begin by determining the status of the team and their nominal strength. Roughly speaking, we formulate what weighs the name of a club in the world of football in general and this season, in particular.

It is clear that names and historical references do not play football. It is played by those people who are in the squad at the time of the match. But understanding the status of teams is important. Winners are strong in their spirit and traditions. Outsiders can be bitten by inferiority complexes. We then compare the conclusions from this paragraph with the current form of teams. We can come across a contradiction.

Examples of wording of status and strength:

• Real Madrid — the long-standing leader of European football, the grand. Club with maximum ambitions.
• Borussia Dortmund — a pretty strong club from the Bundesliga. It has an excellent attack, but with a game on the defensive it’s a problem, even after changing the train of trainers. There is no stability.
• Everton — the average team of the championship of England. Gets close to the top six submarine clubs. Pours money into gain.
• Atalanta — the average team in the Italian Championship. Sometimes goes to Eurocups. Then it sells the leaders and rolls down. And so in a circle.
• Reims — a weak club from the championship of France. Periodically goes to League 1 and after 1-2 seasons it rolls back.

And according to this scheme, you should easily characterize any team in two or three sentences that you intend to bet on games with whose participation. If you can’t — weed out such a match.

Team motivation analysis

To form a forecast for a match, you need to understand the format of the tournament to which it belongs. You must be sure that the team generally needs to win there. The domestic championship and the Champions League are always a priority. Many teams after sleeves belong to the domestic cup or Europa League. To correctly place emphasis before the match, you need to know the attitude of a particular club to certain tournaments. Sometimes the attitude can easily be calculated according to the comments of the coaches and the composition that is put up for the match. So before understanding, the base or understudies will play, do not bet.

Motivation for a particular match may be lost if there is a separation from the pursuers, or the tournament task has already been solved. In the two-match confrontations of the cup format, the second game may also lose its meaning if a confident victory was obtained in the first. So never bet on the second game in isolation from the result of the first.

You can read more about the motivation factor in a separate large article on our website. Here, learn that this is one of the most important factors, without relying on which successful sports betting is unthinkable.

Game styles

You need to briefly formulate in what style both teams play. If a team all the time performs in the same manner, regardless of the status of an opponent, this is easier. If the team is adjusted: with outsiders playing briskly, with a mean of team E cautious, and with the top clubs — in the dead of defense. That is all you need to know, understand and be transferred to the upcoming match.

Short term form

Whatever status the club had before, past merits are worth little in terms of the outcome of a particular game. The current form of the team will have more impact. Better needs to see statistics, the results of the last 5 matches. If the championship games were diluted with matches for the cup or the Euro Cup, then they take a segment of more, 10 games. In addition to statistics, it is great if the analyst personally saw some of these matches or at least detailed reviews on them. Thus, a more complete impression is formed. On statistics alone, you can make mistakes in the conclusions about the form of the team.

At the first stage, the results as a whole are evaluated. What prevails there: victories, draws or defeats? At the second stage, they separately look at the results at home and away. As the hosts of the future match, we played the last 4-5 matches on our field (within the framework of this particular tournament!), and how were the last outings for future guests.

The third step here is to evaluate the strength of those rivals with whom these results were achieved. It is one thing if the team wins, but they are obtained in games against outsiders and crisis teams. Another thing is if the opponent lost a lot and reduced to a draw, but among his counterparts were the strongest league clubs. In such a situation, the hasty assumption that the winning trend of the first team will continue may not be true at all. Here, for the right conclusions, you need to compare other factors.

Goal stats

It is useful to look in the table the ratio of goals scored and goals conceded, obtained by this moment of the season. You should also run a quick run through all the results of the team to make an impression of the dominant scores. If there were any results breaking out from the general statistics, they should be corrected before forming a final opinion on average performance.

For example, in some game the team won 5-0, although such defeats are usually not typical for it. We look at what happened in that game. Perhaps we will see a couple of removals from the opponent, or big problems in their composition due to injuries. In this case, it is reasonable to subtract a couple of goals from the statistics of goals scored, for the sake of objectivity of the picture.

The same thing with a major defeat. If the team lost 0:5, and did it in the game with the leader of the championship, which smashes everyone, then there is little point in taking all these 5 goals into account when analyzing the game with teams of a different level.

From the statistics of goals, subject to amendments, we form an impression: how many teams score on average, how many misses. Hence comes the understanding of whether to consider betting on individual or total totals in this match.

Home Field Factor

We look at how well the team performs in the walls of their own stadium. If victories prevail at home, and losses are very rare, then we add a few points for the success of the owners. We also look at goals. There are clubs that do not leave home lawn without 1-2 goals scored. Such trends can also be successfully put.

Lineups

First, you need to know the approximate basic composition of those teams on which you regularly bet. If some players fail due to injuries, overkill of cards or even because of something, then we can assume how much this will affect the game. There are performers who can be equivalently replaced by position.

And there are team leaders in different lines, whose absence can directly affect the result. There is no place for a formal approach. Need to delve into the team kitchen. Of course, with such a meticulous approach, a better cannot simultaneously well know everything about fifty teams. We have to narrow the circle and focus on quality, and not chase the quantity.

Changes in the squad can also occur simply because of rotation. So in addition to collecting information about injuries and disqualifications, you need to look at the importance of the match and the official application before the game. Perhaps the coach will put one of the leaders on the bench to rest.

The calendar

You need to look at the team schedule. Whether they played in one schedule, or someone had more days of rest. Who has a freer calendar, for that and an advantage in physics. It is also necessary to track the complexity of the opponents with whom the team played, and with which they will meet soon. This will show how the team will distribute forces in this segment.

Also, according to the calendar, you can determine the venues of matches in order to understand how long-distance flights are made by athletes. The roads are exhausting and this should also be taken into account in the forecast.

Club Relations

Matches between clubs from the same region, city, are called derby. Such games often take place in a particularly sharp struggle. In derby, the class of teams does not always decide. Moral-volitional qualities come to the fore. Such matches are dangerous. It is not recommended to bet on the main outcomes and even goals in them. Perhaps for some particularly hot derby it makes sense to consider the total more with yellow cards, or try to catch the removal in the match.

Comfortable and uncomfortable rivals

The history of full-time meetings of teams does not matter much, especially if the games were a long time ago, many years ago. But from this section of statistics we can conclude about the convenience of rivals. It happens that a cooler team for many years can’t defeat their seemingly less powerful opponent. Here we can conclude that the opponent is uncomfortable. Such long-term trends in 5 or more personal meetings must be taken into account and not set against them. It’s better to just skip such a match than to wonder if this strange trend will break or continue.

Coaching factor

It is useful to listen to the press conferences of coaches before and after matches. There may slip important information. It is also not out of place to take into account the history of the relationship of team coaches with each other. If one always beats the second, even with other teams in the past, then this is a bell.

In addition, the better is required to monitor the changes of coaches. If the coach has been replaced, then this is a short-term motivation impulse for the players. And an occasion to look closely at the team, and not blindly set according to the old scheme. A sharp restructuring can go, which will significantly affect the style of the game and the results.

Weather and Field

It is useful to see the weather forecast for the time of the game in the corresponding region. Meteorologists sometimes fail, so that at the beginning of the broadcast they are convinced what the weather is. If nothing unusual, then this factor should not be taken into account. But if it is raining, snowing, fog is creeping in, then it is better not to bet on such games. It is definitely worth avoiding betting on total more or a big favorite victory.

In the same way, the state of the field can also influence. If it is normal, then we do not make any adjustments. If heavy, it is also saturated with rain — this helps athletic teams in the fight against faster and more technical ones.

News background

You need to follow the news regarding those championships and tournaments that you bet on. Here important nuances can come up, both game and near-football content. Maybe the club’s anniversary is coming, or the owner’s birthday, or even the promise of a special prize for a particular match. There may be bad news, in the form of a disease of someone involved in the team, which can unpredictably affect the game and the result. The sponsor can leave, the club bus breaks, the trainer’s cat dies, but you never know. These factors may not affect, but it is better to be involved and take into account something important than to be unaware and lose at the bet.

Judge

To a greater or lesser extent, the referee with his team of assistants can influence the course and result of a football match. This factor should be considered if bets are made on fouls, yellow or red cards. They look at the statistics, how many fouls are whistling and one or another referee gives out cards on average per match, against the background of his colleagues. From this, we can also draw conclusions for approval in our forecast, or its revision.

In terms of the main result, this is not important. Of course, there are statistics on how a particular judge interacts with specific teams. But we would not bother with this data, even if a trend is seen there. So do not fall into conspiracy for long.

Final selection

And now, after the analysis, you have a few, maybe a dozen more or less confident options for bets. But even among them it is useful to make the final selection. There is no clear regulation. Someone will simply half, choosing 50% more confident outcomes from those that were chosen before. Someone does not set hard limits, but trusts his feeling.

The ranking is also subjective. You simply compare your inner confidence in the bid setting. You did the analysis and you perfectly understand which factor is more significant and which is so-so. Remaining after all the manipulations, several bets and use as part of their gaming and financial strategies.

Summary

When choosing suitable matches and outcomes, use this article as a cheat sheet, a reference scheme to go from point to point and avoid many common mistakes. Bookmark this web page, or even print it.