Why Right Bets are More Important Than Immediate Winnings?

Often on the forums one has to hear discussions about the fact that the main outcome is in bets, and not the correctness of choosing a particular bet. Many argue that the lost bet can’t be good. So they say those who do not think about the distance. I’ll try to explain why it’s more important to make “right” bets, and not those that win at this particular moment in time.

To make things more clear, let’s draw a parallel between the bets on red-black in roulette and betting on sports.

What is the difference between the right and wrong bet?

Even if you remove the “zero” from the roulette, at the distance you still do not have a chance to win money from the casino, if you only bet on red and black. Yes, you can win at the casino even 7 evenings in a row, guessing 60 times out of 100 color holes. But the more often the roulette wheel turns, the closer the percentage of your guessing will be to 50%.

The same happens with the game in the “eagle-tails”. If you throw a coin 100 times, then the “eagle” can fall 70 times, but if you throw a coin 10,000 times, you can’t doubt that the number of “eagles” will be very close to half.

Question: What will you put in roulette, if you are offered a coefficient of 2, but you will see that 60% of the fields in the roulette are painted in red?

The answer is obvious. Of course, you will bet on red, because this is the right bet from the point of view of odds. There is more red on the field, so the coefficient should not be equal to two!

Seeing your advantage – you will bet on the other side of the line, where this advantage is.

In the betting business, unlike roulette in a casino, it’s impossible to accurately calculate your net chances of winning. Neither you nor the bookmaker can determine the probability of winning Real Madrid against Barcelona with accuracy to a percentage. But you can compare your probability with the probability of a bookmaker, which he offers you in the form of odds.

To win at a distance from the bookmaker, you should always bet on that outcome in a line that is incorrectly estimated by him.

Therefore, it is important to always make the right bets. Even if they do not bring the result momentarily.

To make a profit in the game with the bookmaker, you must:

• Estimate the probability better than the bookmaker;
• Only place bets on those positions where your opinion seriously disagrees with the opinion of the bookmaker;
• The quality of your line evaluation will be expressed in won (or lost) money at a distance of 2000 bets higher.

In other words, if you are in the black after 5000 bets, then your sports outcome score is more correct than the bookmaker’s estimate, and you can rely on it later.

Examples of the right bets in basketball

If we are talking about betting on basketball, then it is better to single out one typical situation for this sport.

You bet Home (+7.5), because you estimated the probability of winning a home team of 40%. For 1. 5 minutes before the end of your team led in the account 58:57, but in the end lost the match 61:69.

From the point of view of ringing money in your pocket, you lost. But from the point of view of the correctness of the bet, you did everything right. If you go back to the example with the casino, then you bet on red, seeing that the red color on the table is more than black, but you were not lucky – dropped out black.

You were unlucky, but you correctly assessed the course of the match, and this is much more important at a distance. Much more difficult in the future will have to those who in this match made a bet on Away (-7. 5) and after the end of the match insists that the result is more important than the correct bet choice.

It is equally important to be honest with yourself and be able to recognize not only bad luck, but also your mistakes, which you must allow as little as possible. Each lost bet must be analyzed for its correctness. Do not break everything because of one or five mistakes, but if mistakes begin to overturn in the trend – you need to conduct a thorough analysis of all your bets. Who knows, maybe you just got lucky at first?