Adrian Mannarino, world No. 57, will play Tommy Paul, No. 12, in the Rolex Paris Masters’ Round of 64 on Monday. Paul is the strong favorite in the match, with odds of -649 against Mannarino’s +400. These odds imply an 86.6% implied likelihood of Paul winning. In simpler terms, a bet of $ 649 on Paul would yield a profit of $ 100 if he wins, while a bet of $ 100 on Mannarino would yield a profit of $ 400 if he wins.
Despite Mannarino’s 10-14 record on hard courts in 2023, he has shown resilience, winning 72.2% of serve games but 21.6% of return games. His break-point conversion on hard courts is 36.3%. In contrast, Paul has been more consistent, with a 19-10 record, an 80.6% service game victory percentage, and a 28.9% return game success rate. He also has a higher break-point conversion percentage, 41.2%.
Given his numbers and previous performance, Paul is in a strong position to dominate the contest. Gamblers can bet on Paul with a handicap of -4.5 games, which fits with his chances of winning decisively. However, it’s important to note that betting with a handicap also increases the risk, as Paul would need to win by a margin of at least 5 games for the bet to be successful.