Qarabağ plays Ajax at Baku’s Tofiq Bəhramov Stadium in an interesting matchup between determined hosts and tough visitors. The chances for Qarabağ to win are 2.87, while the odds for Ajax to win are 2.06, which means that the Dutch team is slightly favored. However, one thing that significantly boosts the Azerbaijani team’s chances is their strong home advantage, with the odds set at 1.65 for either Qarabağ or a draw, instilling confidence in their potential to win.
Ajax is a dangerous team to defend against because their xG of 2.16 per match puts them ahead of the other team. But Qarabağ does have some good qualities at home. They have a good xG of 2.35 and a persistently strong offensive spirit, which is surprising for a team that seems behind. As the odds for Qarabağ keeping a clean sheet are high at 4.50, Ajax may need to be very disciplined on defense.
Based on statistics, we can expect a thrilling game with the Over 2.5 Goals odds of 1.76 indicating a potential for fireworks, in line with the high average number of goals scored in previous games (2.82). If the chances for both sides to score are 1.50, it looks like a promising bet, but their total BTTS rate is still only 44%. The prospect of a high-scoring game should keep you on the edge of your seat.
With an average of 13.63 corners per set piece, these two teams are likely to score, making Total Corners Over 9.5 at 1.91 an exciting bet.
In the end, Ajax’s slightly better away from—a 50% win rate—might tip the chances in their favour, but Qarabağ’s home defence edge is too strong to be ignored. Smart bettors should watch Qarabağ’s ability to throw off Ajax’s rhythm. This game is where small differences in odds could make or break your odds.