Duke has a difficult game against a talented Miami club after a tight 28-27 overtime defeat to SMU. While Duke’s defence has been exceptional, allowing just 18.6 points per game and ranking in the top five nationally in numerous passing and defensive categories, they will be challenged against Miami’s powerful attack. Cam Ward’s accurate throwing, 9.8 yards per attempt, and the Hurricanes’ powerful ground game, averaging 5.6 yards per run, make them a formidable opponent.
Duke’s attack could be more dynamic, averaging just 26.0 points and 336.0 yards per game. QB Maalik Murphy’s 58.6% completion percentage and 3.5 yards per carry in the run game may struggle against Miami’s strong defence, which limits opponents to 21.5 points and 97.1 running yards per contest.
Miami’s recent 22-point win against Florida State and their general dominance (46.8 points per game) make them a clear favorite. Miami’s balanced attack will put pressure on Duke’s defence in ways that few ACC teams can, while their disciplined defence will restrict Duke’s productivity.
Prediction: Miami should cover the spread by -20.