Law of Large Numbers

A mathematical law formulated in the 17th century by the mathematician Jacob Bernoulli. The essence of the law is: the larger the sample, the greater the chance that we are seeing the true probability of the event. How can I explain in a simpler language? It is easy to understand Bernoulli’s law by the example of tossing a coin, when the chances for an eagle or a rake are equal, that is, 50/50. Bernoulli’s law says that the more times coin is tossed; the closer to 50% is the probability of one side falling out. How does the law of large numbers apply to sports betting? If your proven strategy of the game does not give a win, do not judge it by the five made bets. Here the long-term result is much more important. That is, 1000 bets in any case provide a more correct conclusion than the 5 forecasts.

For example, you toss a coin 9 times. 6 times the eagle fell and 3 – tails. It seems that the eagle fell with a probability of 66.6%. But is this probability true? No, because nine tosses are too few. And if you take, for example, a million tosses. In this case, no matter how random it may be, the result will still be close to 50/50, because a sample of a million tosses allows you to include the maximum number of possible options and will be much more accurate.